NCB Stockbrokers best for forecasts in AQ survey

NCB Stockbrokers' analysts have emerged as the top researchers for predicting share performance and recommending stocks in an independent survey.

London-based AQ Research has named NCB's Orla Hartford as the best individual analyst for stock recommendations (advising on buying or selling individual shares) and her colleague David Odlum as runner up in a survey covering the 12 months to April 28th.

In addition, it named NCB's research department generally for producing the highest number of recommendations that added value to investors' stock portfolios.

"In all NCB Stockbrokers was top or top equal on 15 stocks for recommendations and 10 (stocks) for earnings accuracy," AQ said.

AQ Research said that Orla Hartford "made a good call" in putting a buy on Elan, which delivered very substantial gains over the review period. AQ also named the bio-pharmaceutical developer as one of the most volatile shares on the Irish market.

David Odlum was cited for going against the consensus by being the only analyst to recommend financial institution Irish Life & Permanent as a buy during the three-year review period.

"Odlum was also fourth in the individual rankings for best analyst, making him the best all-round individual performer," AQ said.

Goodbody Stockbrokers came second on recommendations, while its analyst, Ian Hunter, ranked third for the accuracy of his predictions of individual stock's performance.

Goodbody was assessed on the largest number of stocks, as its researchers had produced analyses of 41 of the 50 shares that AQ looked at in its survey.

Merrion Capital came second for accurate forecasts. The Republic's biggest broker, Davy, was ranked third for accuracy but was not analysed on recommendations, as its analysts do not recommend stocks. Dolmen was third for recommendations but was not assessed on accuracy.

The report examined research produced by 37 stockbroking firms on a total of 50 companies listed on the Irish Stock Exchange. AQ Research managing director Graham Field said that the period was a strong one for the Irish market. "But in the small cap area, stockpicking really did make a difference to performance," he pointed out. "And volatile stocks like Elan and Ryanair have tested the analysts."