Mixed signals from ECB help undermine the euro

Pity the poor old euro; it appears it can do no right. Through all the bad times since its inception, the consolation has been that it would eventually come into its own when the record bull run on US markets ended. The absence of any such rally has only undermined any remaining enthusiasm among traders for the beleaguered currency.

The truth is dealers are increasingly exasperated with the euro's failure to rally on the back of a favourable economic situation. Pivotal in this has been the dollar's failure to fall despite figures showing an escalating trade deficit and rising inflation.

But the clincher for the professionals has been the confusion coming from the guardians of the currency, the European Central Bank. The mixed signals from its officials and members have undermined the euro.

Worse still is the suspicion that certain member-states are happy to see the currency on the slide as it promotes exports and helps their economies on the road to recovery. Germany, Europe's economic powerhouse, is seen as a more enthusiastic proponent of such an approach. Given the traditional impartiality and pragmatism of the Bundesbank in the pre-euro days, this is damaging the currency further.

Little surprise then that the notion of the euro has failed to take off among the general public. At this rate, it might not be around by the time note and coins are due to come into circulation in 2002.