Merrion downgrades IN&M to a 'hold'

One More Thing:It is interesting to note that Merrion Stockbrokers has broken from the pack and downgraded Independent News Media from a "buy" to a "hold".

In a report released to clients on Tuesday, analyst Gavin Kelleher, a recent recruit from Goodbody Stockbrokers, said IN&M's share price was "close to fair value" and gave it a €3.30 price target. The stock was trading about €3.10 at the time and has since nudged above the €3.20 mark.

"Outside of corporate activity, significant share price appreciation from here is, in our view, dependent on upgrades, which are less likely given the [ economic] headwinds that exist," Kelleher said.

Merrion's recommendation contrasts to that of other brokers in Dublin.

NCB and Dolmen list Independent as a "buy" while Goodbody has it as an "add", which amounts to the same thing.

Davy, a broker to IN&M, steers clear of such recommendations but upgraded its share price target for IN&M when it produced its latest report on the company earlier this year.

The "headwinds" mentioned by Kelleher attach to the Irish and South African divisions.

In Ireland, Kelleher highlights the potential for a slowdown in Irish advertising revenues, particularly for its property section, due to the slowdown in the residential sector. Kelleher estimates that property advertising generates about 15 per cent of IN&M's turnover here.

Kelleher has pencilled in a 5 per cent increase in advertising revenue for the Irish division in fiscal 2008, compared with 8 per cent in the current year.

On South Africa, he highlights concerns about the effects of rising interest rates and the possibility that a revaluation of the rand might have on its South African arm, which has experienced strong growth in recent years.

Merrion has never been afraid to plough its own furrow and produce negative reports on Ireland's biggest public companies.

This report will hardly endear Kelleher to IN&M chairman Sir Anthony O'Reilly, especially as he is fighting a rearguard action against Denis O'Brien, now IN&M's second largest investor with a 9.1 per cent stake.