McCreevy's confidence may be of blind variety

Confidence is a great thing but blind confidence can be the prelude to a nasty fall. The Minister for Finance, Charlie McCreevy, was bullish about the economy's performance and the outlook for inflation as it edged up to a 10-year high of 4.6 per cent.

He fully expects the rate, now more than twice the EU average, to fall back throughout the year. And he might be right. Many of the inflationary elements of the last Budget have kicked in and the influence of rising oil prices is likely to diminish as OPEC ups supply and prices fall.

On the other hand, there are increasing signs of inflationary pressure on wages, which could feed into the equation.

In addition, interest rates are rising and consumer borrowing is forecast to be double GDP by the end of the year. Maybe Charlie is right and the begrudgers are themselves blind to the true nature of our "sustainable" economic miracle. Let's hope so.