Brown contrives to square political circle

Some senior Labour ministers went to the Commons yesterday determined to enjoy Chancellor Gordon Brown's discomfiture. They can only have gone away marvelling at his considerable political skills.

Understatement is not normally something one associates with the Prime Minister's style. But there was something of that on Sunday when he conceded his government had taken "taken a knock" over its handling of the Single Currency issue.

By general consent Labour's approach in recent weeks has been shambolic. And yesterday was expected to mark the end of the honeymoon for a government suspected of facing both ways over Europe. Yet somehow the Chancellor contrived to square the circle - effectively ruling out British membership of the single currency in this parliament, while committing the government "in principle" to joining in the next - and turning the whole event into an attack on the Tory Party for good measure.

He was ably assisted, it must be said, by a woefully ineffective performance from Mr Peter Lilley. The Shadow Chancellor is better on paper than on his feet, and we can expect a more searching rehearsal of the ambiguities still in the government's position in the days and weeks to come.

Yesterday Mr Lilley simply added to the obvious satisfaction on Labour benches that they had again wrong-footed the Conservatives. Not unfairly, Mr Lilley noted that the promised "definitive" statement had not absolutely ruled out British participation ahead of the next election.

The Chancellor had left himself the get-out clause, allowing for a "fundamental and unforeseen change in economic circumstances" forcing a government rethink. But Mr Brown could hardly contain his mirth and relief when Mr Lilley invited him to confide in the House what form those unforeseen developments might take.

When he comes to lead the charge, we may expect Mr William Hague to choose more promising territory. For Mr Brown was clear in telling business to plan on the basis that membership would not arise during the present parliament. The absence of proper preparation and, more crucially, economic convergence, meant Britain could not join in the 1999 first wave. And the Chancellor stated bluntly: "There is no realistic prospect of our having demonstrated, before the end of this parliament, that we have achieved convergence which is sustainable and settled rather than transitory."

More promising, perhaps, for Mr Hague to test the government on the nature and impact of the promised preparations for joining a successful single currency which will not, seemingly, involve sterling "shadowing" the euro. The Tory leader will certainly not be alone in challenging Mr Brown's assertion that "the constitutional issue" is "a factor" but not "an overriding one".

And the European heads of state and governments could complicate Mr Brown's life if they do not comply with his insistence that Britain would not be required to spend two years inside the Exchange Rate Mechanism prior to signing up for a single currency.

Pro-Europeans will have little choice but to travel hopefully, given Mr Brown's positive statement of intent - while remaining anxious about Mr Blair's determination to keep the tabloid and centre-right press sweet. Yet, as they await their verdict, the Blair camp is apparently convinced it has transformed the landscape.

Having dispensed with the issue for this parliament, it anticipates fighting the next election armed with the backing of big business for a pro-European stance while retaining the get-out clause should the currency project founder. Fixing Mr Hague takes priority over Mr Blair's ambitions to play a leading role in Europe!