The crisis in the Far East and the knock-on effect on the Anzac economies as well as the collapse of the South African rand have had a devastating effect on two Tony O'Reilly-related companies.
Independent Newspapers shares are at their lowest level for a year as a result of the slump in the value of the Australian and New Zealand dollars and the rand, while Waterford Wedgwood is still weak although it has come back from its recent lows. Waterford's problem is the weak Japanese retail market where its Wedgwood china has traditionally been a strong seller.
Those problems have led to a series of broker downgrades of Indo and Waterford Wedgwood profits and earnings this year and next and this week company broker Davy knocked £5 million off its previous £100 million profit forecast for this year. In Waterford's case, the clawback has been even greater with Davy now forecasting £49 million for this year down from £55 million.
Exchange rates have been a killer for Indo, with the New Zealand dollar down 8 per cent against the pound since the beginning of April. The Australian dollar is also down 8 per cent, while the South African rand has plummeted 20 per centplus.
To put that in context, the APN business in Australia, Wilson & Horton in New Zealand and Argus in South Africa account for almost 60 per cent of Indo's profits, so the effect on profits translated from those currencies is profound.
At less than 350p, Indo is now trading on a hefty discount both to the Irish market average and the British newspaper sector average, Davy suggests that the price fall is "well overdone" and offers an opportunity to build a weighting. The rest of the market, however, is still unconvinced.
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