At the outset of the war on Iran, US president Donald Trump gave several reasons for launching strikes, from eliminating its nuclear programme to regime change. Now, Trump has claimed that his goals have been achieved and signalled that attacks will end in “two to three weeks”.
His objectives for starting the war – and ending it – have shifted since launching strikes on February 28th. Here is a reminder of some of what he has said – and where the US stands now.
Revolution
Then: When Trump announced strikes early on the morning of February 28th, he called it the “single greatest chance” for the Iranian people to take back their country. He urged Iranian soldiers to “lay down your weapons [and] ... join forces with the Iranian people to take over the government. It will be yours to take”.
Now: Trump has ceased speaking about protests. He was a month too late when he did. Mass protests began in December and ended in mid-January after the Iranian government and security forces cracked down hard, killing and wounding thousands and arresting tens of thousands.
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Regime change
Then: A week into the fighting, Trump declared on social media that there would be no deal with Iran unless there was “unconditional surrender”. After this, he wrote, there would be the selection of “great and acceptable leaders”.
Now: Trump is now claiming the assassination of Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior leaders, and their replacement by others, equates to regime change. Ali Khamenei has been succeeded by his hardline son, Mojtaba. He maintains close ties to the country’s powerful paramilitary Revolutionary Guard.
Nuclear capabilities
Then: Trump claimed last year that Iran’s nuclear facilities at Fordow, Nantaz and Isfahan had been “completely and totally obliterated”. This followed a US-Israeli bombing campaign last June. When the war started in February, Trump insisted Iran was “two weeks away” from developing a nuclear weapon and the conflict was aimed at ensuring the country would never get one.
Now: Iran retains 440kg of uranium enriched to 60 per cent, short of the 90 per cent needed for weapons. It is unclear how accessible the uranium is following more bombing during the conflict. Ali Khamenei issued a fatwa banning such weapons when he was alive, and it is unclear how the new leadership views the acquisition of a nuclear bomb.
Ballistic missiles
Then: On February 28th, Trump said the US would destroy Iran’s missiles and raze its missile industry to the ground. “It will be totally, again, obliterated,” the president said.
Now: A US intelligence report, described to the Reuters news agency last week, indicates that only a third of Iran’s missiles and drones have been destroyed, while another third are likely to be damaged or buried and therefore unavailable for use. The report suggests Tehran still has significant stockpiles of weapons.
Reopening the Strait of Hormuz
Then: When the US and Israel launched airstrikes, Iran responded by choking traffic through the strategic waterway. The US president said shortly afterwards that, “if necessary, the United States Navy will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, as soon as possible. No matter what, the United States will ensure the FREE FLOW of ENERGY to the WORLD”.
Now: As oil and gas prices have soared, Trump has castigated allies for refusing to join the conflict and use force to reopen the strait. “Go get your own oil!” he demanded on Truth Social. “You’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the USA won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us.”
