German chancellor Friedrich Merz has vowed to stay in office to press ahead with reforms despite heavy losses for his Christian Democratic Union party and surges in support for the far right and far left in regional elections.
Merz’s conservatives were expected to secure only 5.1 to 5.3 per cent of the vote in the northeastern state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, just above the 5 per cent threshold for parliamentary representation, according to estimates based on partial results on Sunday. The CDU had secured 13 per cent in the 2021 elections.
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) was expected to become the largest party in the former communist state, according to the partial results.
The results are set to be the CDU’s lowest in any state election in Germany’s postwar history.
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Speaking minutes after polls closed on Sunday, Merz, who is facing record unpopularity, sought to quash speculation that the setbacks would trigger an immediate leadership crisis, following weeks of mounting unrest within his party.
“This is a disaster,” Merz said of the results in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the former home state of ex-CDU chancellor Angela Merkel.
The result, he added, was a reaction to his government’s necessary economic reforms, which he would seek to pursue in order to achieve “prosperity”.
“The reforms must come,” Merz said, adding: “What needs to be done requires backbone, steadfastness and patience. I will demonstrate this as the CDU’s party leader and, especially, as our country’s chancellor.”
The losses for Merz’s party come two weeks after the AfD’s shock victory in elections in Saxony-Anhalt, where the far-right party is now trying to form its first regional government. The results risk emboldening CDU critics blaming the chancellor’s low personal ratings and seeking a change at the top.
Some CDU insiders told the Financial Times last week that falling below the 5 per cent threshold for parliamentary representation in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern’s parliament could be a catalyst for a change in party leader and even chancellor.
Merz convened a meeting with party heavyweights in Berlin on Sunday evening to draw the lessons of the elections and try to cement their loyalty.
In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, a state of 1.5 million inhabitants that was once part of East Germany, the governing Social Democrats were on course to come second with 35.6-36.3 per cent, compared with 39.6 per cent in 2021, according to early estimates.
The AfD was expected to more than double its tally to 37-37.8 per cent, from 17 per cent.
In the city-state of Berlin, the CDU was projected to be relegated to second place with 20 per cent, down from 28.2 per cent in the previous 2023 election.
The Left party (Die Linke) – which has vowed to expropriate property from corporate landlords in the capital – is expected to surge to first place in the capital with an estimated 24.8-25.8 per cent.
The party, which has also harnessed alarm about the surge of the far right, was set to more than double its result from the 12 per cent it secured in 2023.
The AfD was forecast to come third in Berlin with an estimated 13.8-15.7 per cent, up from 9 per cent previously.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2026
