On the basis that when English and Welsh rugby sneeze it's only a matter of time before clubs here catch a cold, the recent, well-publicised financial travails of heavyweights like Bristol and Neath don't bode well for the game here.
Conversation in the North's rarefied rugby circles is heavy with the talk of ground sales, mergers and cost-cutting. The Ulster clubs have dipped their toes in the professional waters and, in large part, haven't relished the experience.
Speculation on the emergence of some sort of Team Belfast, one side instead of the six senior clubs which currently compete in an ever-shrinking goldfish bowl for the same players, still hasn't gone away, but at the minute it's old club loyalties which stand steadfast in the way of what seem logical realignments.
The perilous state of Ulster rugby is one of the less obvious spin-offs of what is referred to here as the "Protestant braindrain", the phenomenon where a high proportion of Protestant school-leavers take up places at Scottish and English universities rather than stay at home.
The Sigerson Cup experience in Gaelic football has shown what an excellent feeder source the home universities are for inter-county sides. The intensive coaching and improved competition provide an important bridge between under-age and senior competition.
But the parallel rugby development stops when the boys walk out the doors of their secondary schools for the last time. For a variety of reasons, few opt for either of the home universities, thus the local clubs have no obvious hothouse for young talent to turn to. So the alternative is the same collection of ageing players shuttling from one club to another. Allied to this is the near impossibility of balancing the books. Crowds are only a fraction of what clubs in the South can attract.
Of all the Ulster clubs in the All-Ireland League, only Ballymena and Dungannon can be said to have adjusted to the harsh realities of professionalism's brave new world.
The uniting factor is Ballymena's excellent and ground-breaking organisation off the field. The only Ulster side in Division One next season, Ballymena have placed a strong emphasis on establishing sound financial structures. They have committed sponsors, including local businesses, which have enabled the club to hold on to their best players. The impressive presence of Willie John McBride has made Ballymena a credible choice for top Southern Hemisphere coaches, and next season the forward-thinking Neile Smith will be replaced by another progressive South African, Andries Bester.
Dungannon, if anything, have their rugby head even more screwed on. They've always been a bit of an anomaly: the only big senior club (with the obvious exception of City of Derry) west of the Bann and with a potentially huge catchment area encompassing Tyrone, Armagh, Fermanagh and beyond. But they've never really punched their weight with the southern big boys.
There are plans to improve the facilities at Stevenson Park, courtesy of an ambitious millennium building project. An even greater off-the-pitch coup has been the return of Willie Anderson after the mixed fortunes of his London Irish experience.
A leader as a player, Anderson looks forward in just the same way as a coach and an organiser. He is a driven individual who expects the same in return from his players and invariably gets it. Willie is the club and to a large extent the club is Willie. That go-ahead attitude is a reflection of the mood in Dungannon as a whole. In contrast to a host of other towns of similar size, there aren't the same boundaries or exclusion zones and there is a much greater degree of sporting ecumenism. Anderson and former Tyrone player Kieran McCabe are the prime movers in an annual charity game between the two codes, which is played one half rugby and one half Gaelic football. Ever eager to pick up pointers and tips from wherever he can, Anderson is a keen student of Gaelic and once famously said that if he had had Tyrone's Peter Canavan as a young player he could have transformed him into a top-class outhalf.
Dungannon also benefited from a regular influx of players from both of the town's main schools - the Catholic St Patrick's Academy and the Protestant Royal School - although Fr Denis Faul used to say that it was only after the Academy had creamed off the best GAA talent that the rugby club were able to have a look at the rest.
All these factors have come together to complete a very simple equation: Dungannon is an attractive place for Irish rugby players. There is already an impressive list of returning prodigals from England - Mark McCall, David Humphreys, Alan Clarke and Jonathan Bell. It is significant that two of those, Humphreys and Bell, have snubbed their old club, Ballymena, to join Dungannon and Anderson. It could be an indication of a fundamental switch in the centre of Ulster rugby power.
International centre McCall has already been named by new director of coaching Harry Williams as Ulster's squad captain for the season, leading to speculation that Dungannon is, in effect, going to be Team Ulster both this year and for years to come.
After a few years of silly money and Ulster rugby clubs palpably living beyond their means, there are signs of a much-needed realignment. Ballymena and Dungannon are setting the pace, leaving other supposedly more illustrious clubs like Malone trailing. A merger of at least two of the Belfast clubs now looks like a financial imperative.
It looks inevitable that there will be some casualties, but after the inflated wages, crippling running costs and other associated teething problems, the time has come for Ulster rugby's senior sides to stop living beyond their means.
