Road to the Premier League title: Analysing the run-in

The events of Sunday’s most super of all Super Sundays have blown the Premier League title race even further open with Arsenal now firmly back in the hunt while Spurs have shown themselves to be real title contenders.

The manner of Leicester’s defeat to Arsenal – having gone ahead before conceding an equaliser and then a last-minute winner – is sure to have hurt the squad and could well end up having a lasting impact.

For Arsenal a win was badly needed to bring themselves right back into contention and the late drama will only heighten the high that they will already be on.

Meanwhile Spurs will surely be on the highest of all highs having gone to Manchester City and won. The result leaves Manuel Pellegrini's side on the periphery of still being considered contenders as they lie six points behind Leicester with the same games played.

So, with 12 games remaining for each team Leicester sit top on 53 points with Spurs now just two behind. They pip Arsenal to second place only on goal difference while City occupy the final Champions League qualification spot with 47 points.

With the league action taking a break next weekend as the FA Cup takes over it’s a good time to assess the run-in of each of the title contenders..

Leicester

Sat Feb 27: Norwich (h), Tue Mar 1: West Brom (h), Sat Mar 5: Watford (a), Mon Mar 14: Newcastle (h), Sat Mar 19: Crystal Palace (a), Sat Apr 2: Southampton (h), Sat Apr 9: Sunderland (a), Sat Apr 16: West Ham (h), Sat Apr 23: Swansea (h), Sat Apr 30: Manchester United (a), Sat May 7: Everton (h), Sun May 15: Chelsea (a).

Straight away it’s clear that Claudio Ranieri’s side have the most favourable final 12 games. Of those 12, eight are against teams in the lower half of the table while out of the other four – Manchester United, Watford, Southampton and West Ham – they have already beaten West Ham and Watford, drawing with United and Southampton.

Much of looking at the run-in is based on possibilities but there is the chance that out of their final three games – United, Everton and Chelsea – both United and Chelsea could still be involved in European competition and therefore resting players. Even Everton look as if they will have nothing to play for in the final few games.

After Sunday’s loss to Arsenal they couldn’t ask for a much better game to come back to against a Norwich side that has picked up just one point from a possible 18 in their last six games and is plummeting towards the drop zone.

Tottenham

Sun Feb 28: Swansea (h), Wed Mar 2: West Ham (a), Sat Mar 5: Arsenal (h), Sat Mar 12: Aston Villa (a), Sat Mar 19: Bournemouth (h), Sat Apr 2: Liverpool (a), Sat Apr 9: Manchester United (h), Sat Apr 16: Stoke (a), Sat Apr 23: West Brom (h), Sat Apr 30: Chelsea (a), Sat May 7: Southampton (h), Sun May 15: Newcastle (a).

As opposed to Leicester, exactly half of Spurs’ remaining games are against sides in the top half, including what looks set to be a monumental north London derby at home to Arsenal.

Spurs have lost just three games this season – to Leicester, Man United and Newcastle – two of which they have to play again.

Whereas Leicester’s last three games could potentially be against three teams with nothing to play for, Spurs could be facing a Southampton side needing a result to secure Europa League before travelling to play Newcastle who are fighting for their Premier League lives.

It goes without saying that the key game is Arsenal at home on March 5th. Were Spurs to win that it would be hard to see them not go on and win the league given the huge confidence they would take from it.

Arsenal

Sun Feb 28: Manchester United (a), Wed Mar 2: Swansea (h), Sat Mar 5: Tottenham (a), Sat Mar 12: West Brom (h), Sat Mar 19: Everton (a), Sat Apr 2: Watford (h), Sat Apr 9: West Ham (a), Sat Apr 16: Crystal Palace (h), Sat Apr 23: Sunderland (a), Sat Apr 30: Norwich (h), Sat May 7: Manchester City (a), Sun May 15: Aston Villa (h).

On paper Arsenal definitely have the toughest run-in. Despite Man United's poor form it's not a game Arsene Wenger would choose to come back to after the FA Cup given that fact that his side haven't won in the league at Old Trafford since September 2006. And just to add to that: the game comes just five days after taking on Barcelona in the Champions League last 16.

The previously mentioned north London derby at White Hart Lane comes just two games after that and the final four games probably aren’t the opponents you would choose.

Both Sunderland and Norwich look like they will be desperate for a result to maintain survival hopes while City will most likely still be in the title race.

One redeeming factor is a final day home game against an Aston Villa side that almost certainly doomed to relegation even at this stage.

Manchester City

Wed Mar 2: Liverpool (a), Sat Mar 5: Aston Villa (h), Sat Mar 12: Norwich (a), Sun Mar 20: Manchester United (h), Sat Apr 2: Bournemouth (a), Sat Apr 9: West Brom (h), Sat Apr 16: Chelsea (a), Sat Apr 23: Stoke (h), Sat Apr 30: Southampton (a), Sat May 7: Arsenal (h), Sun May 15: Swansea (a), TBA: Newcastle (a) - postponed because of Capital One Cup final.

Not playing a league match on the weekend of the 27th and 28th could possibly work in City’s favour if Arsenal were to slip up at Old Trafford. A win for Pellegrini’s team against Liverpool three days later would then leave them just a point behind the Gunners with them still to come at home.

Having said that it’s hard to see City coming back into the title race. Realistically they would need to win every game or at least not lose one and with Liverpool, Man United, Chelsea and Arsenal still to play that’s a very big ask.

The fact that they have already played Leicester twice also means that they’re relying on the Foxes dropping at least six points in a run-in that looks quite favourable.

Verdict: Spurs to win the title on the final day.