Gordon D'Arcy: Toulouse primed to expose Ulster’s limitations

Remember the swollen head on England’s Dan Cole when forced up and out of South Africa’s Tendai Mtawarira’s vice grip during last year’s World Cup final. It was a scrum mismatch that proved the winning of the entire tournament.

Equally, a dodgy lineout should be ruthlessly attacked and especially when a young hooker is struggling to find his jumpers. Including Dev Toner. And especially when it becomes obvious that the pressure to hit the mark is consuming his thoughts.

I struggle to find a valid excuse for Ulster's failure to expose a glaring Leinster weakness during last Saturday's Pro 14 final. With Ronán Kelleher struggling badly, the Dan McFarland game plan needed to be shelved. Here was a golden opportunity to clamp down on a glaring weakness; the scene was set to heap an unholy amount of pressure on Kelleher and Kelleher alone.

Isolate, target, torture is the very essence of cup rugby.

Gordon D’Arcy: Munster persist with a game they are only partially resourced to play

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Gordon D’Arcy: Munster need constructive chaos to derail blue juggernaut

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Gordon D’Arcy: Irish players know it only takes one idiotic moment to bring rugby down

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Gordon D’Arcy: Right now, I’d rather be in the Irish system than anywhere else

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Sorry to have to mention Ruan Pienaar's name after all these years, but the wily old Springbok scrumhalf would have turned Leinster's mini-meltdown into Ulster points. Pienaar would have had the tactical nous to grubber ball after ball into the 22.

The Ulster pack could have rushed into position, standing every inch their full height while staring down at the young hooker. If Kelleher hesitated for even a split second before the throw, Iain Henderson and Alan O’Connor could roar at the referee. The heat would have been unbearable for both official and player.

Each and every Leinster throw needed to be contested because, as Leo Cullen admitted afterwards, the entire set piece, from thrower to lifters, was off rhythm. Have your scavengers ready to pounce on Kelleher’s overthrow. Keep reminding him that his worst nightmare is happening. Climb inside the young man’s already rattled brain.

Dan Cole was a veteran of all the rugby wars a prop can cover in a 12 year career. On that day in Yokohama, when Mtawarira took him into a dark cave, the 32-year-old may as well have been a fresh-faced rookie.

Kelleher already looked like he would compound each error with another. For a few minutes Leinster appeared less like a juggernaut and more like England against The Boks.

After pulverising the All Blacks, Eddie Jones’s side were the best team on earth while South Africa struggled past Wales. It took a week and a few seconds into the final, when Kyle Sinckler got concussed, for the house of cards to collapse around a malfunctioning English scrum.

Ulster lacked the wherewithal to pull at similar threads. They lacked the game managers to make this happen. A few more pieces of the puzzle are missing than we initially thought. Finals put the smallest weakness in any team under a microscope. Even Leinster showed the capacity to crack.

Strong character

You can imagine what Leo, Dev and Kelleher are up to this week. Saracens and chiefly Maro Itoje’s ‘Plan A’ is contained in the paragraphs above. I’d say Itoje is missing George Kruis and Nick Isiekwe right about now but the Saracens lineout will still go after Leinster.

Leinster’s capacity to rapidly eliminate a weakness is well established. The box kick was a damaging Munster weapon against them last month. Flash forward two weeks and it was the stick everyone is using to beat Johann van Graan.

The wobbly lineouts were Ulster’s window into Leinster’s psyche. They never so much as cracked the glass.

If the 22-year-old’s internal monologue wasn’t screaming for mercy when the fourth throw from seven went forward off Caelan Doris’ hand then he is as strong a character as all the great players I played alongside.

In the next 10 years that Kelleher should start for Leinster and Ireland, I don’t expect Ulster will get a better crack at him.

On the surface, Ulster's trip to Toulouse can be compared to Leinster's victory down there in 2006. Both quarter-finalists on the road; both Irish provinces with a young coach who quickly turned the club around; both facing a serious Toulouse outfit, that looks as spectacular in 2020 as they did in the heyday of Jauzion,Elissalde and Clerc.

Ulster will probably need to replicate Leinster’s 41 points to progress to the semi-finals via Stade Ernest Wallon.

Scratch the surface, just a little, and Ulster nowadays are some distance off Leinster back then.

Considering Ulster’s overall form since the restart, Cheslin Kolbe, Antonine Dupont and Thomas Ramos must be licking their lips.

McFarland’s team are still on an upward curve but a reality check could be in store on Sunday because, working off the evidence to hand, they are some way off bringing a trophy to Belfast.

The manner in which they reacted to Hume’s try had the look of a team not mentally prepared to take an early lead. Leinster instantly crept downfield because of an Iain Henderson penalty off the restart.

In knockout rugby – at the elite end of the game – you need every player and coach to be ready. Toulouse are aiming to replace Saracens and Leinster as the best team in Europe. They will be ready.

Leinster, back in 2006, won in spectacular fashion down in France thanks to Denis Hickie and Felipe Contepomi – with a little help from the rest of us – cutting open the greatest European backline ever assembled.Twice.

We had a slick mix of experience and youthful exuberance, ranging from Keith Gleeson to Jamie Heaslip, that were itching to do something special.

And still, we were three years off being ready for Munster.

Enough about provincial glory of old. Ulster of today are not in this category. Not yet anyway. I’d love to be proven wrong but the harsh reality of Champions Cup matches on the road is about to be visited upon them.

Savage opponents

They deserve to be where they are but even guys like Iain Henderson and Jordi Murphy are breaking new ground. Sure, they have played in World Cup quarter-finals and European deciders but they were followers back then. Now they are the leaders. That transition takes time and it doesn’t always happen. Munster are five years into the construction of that same bridge.

I get the feeling McFarland has been preparing Ulster all summer for this moment but Toulouse are savage opponents.

Leinster should benefit this weekend from winning a trophy in an empty stadium. There is a huge emotional pull before, during and after performing in front of 50,000 people. More so when they are Irish people. There is the lap of honour and inevitable celebrations with teammates, friends and family.

I imagine the lads just went home on Saturday night. There was nowhere else to go. A few beers on the couch, making sure you don’t wake up the kids, will hardly drain too much energy before Saracens.

Ross Byrne keeps proving that Sarries are more reliant on Owen Farrell’s overall package than Leinster are on Johnny Sexton.

Farrell sets the tone for Saracens. In the St James Park final last year he swung the pendulum back their way with a huge touch-finding penalty on the stroke of half-time. Leinster were unable to recover from Saracens making it 10-all off that lineout.

Whichever way you interpret Mark McCall's comment about Farrell's role this week at training – "He's not being Johnny Sexton, he's just being Owen Farrell playing at 10 for the opposition" – it must have created some tasty sessions in St Albans.

Manu Vunipola has the pedigree and Alex Goode is a quality footballer but Farrell’s suspension makes the Saracens team very beatable. Leinster, on the other hand, can make a few tweaks that will make them stronger.

Each strategic selection was made with an eye on this game. No more managing bodies. The strongest Leinster 23, on form and ability, is about to be unleashed.

Stockdale edging fullback debate

Busy weekend for Andy Farrell and Warren Gatland. Any day now the focus will switch to Ireland’s very busy winter – sorry, “autumn” – schedule.

I keep trying to visualise Farrell’s best team. It slightly alters after each game. This weekend we settle in to watch the Ireland fullback. I am edging towards Jacob Stockdale’s performance in Toulouse outdoing Jordan Larmour’s performance under Saracens’ high balls.

As that debate builds, Munster’s Shane Daly has proved himself to be a competent 15. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him added to Farrell’s training panel.

Right now, my Ireland back three would be Stockdale with Keith Earls and James Lowe on the wings with Robbie Henshaw covering a number of positions on the bench.

Larmour’s talent is undeniable but his attacking ability must be matched by the reliability Rob Kearney brought to the position. This remains a work-in-progress that Leinster are keen to develop. There is still plenty of time and the finished article will be special. But we always knew that. In every game since rugby returned I am looking at the pieces Larmour and Stockdale keep adding to their game, so the debate is fluid.

Same goes for the conversation around the most impressive young Leinster forward. I presume this pack can only be picked based on how lads match up in certain sessions. Will Connors and Ryan Baird are hammering away at the selectors’ door whereas Caelan Doris is a nailed on starter for Leinster, Ireland and ... ah, let’s not overreact just yet.