Margins likely to be minuscule as Ireland meet France in Six Nations showdown

Six Nations: France v Ireland, Stade Vélodrome, Marseille, Friday, 9pm local time/8pm Irish (Live on Virgin Media, UTV)

In ways, the post-World Cup feelings of what-might-have-been will only be reinforced by this collision.

The dream final that, alas, remained just that. Now, having been the round two Six Nations title decider in all but name for the last two seasons, in some respects the pity is the organisers have shoehorned it on to opening night.

Proof, were it needed, that television controls major sport. Andy Farrell has been led to believe that thousands of Irish supporters who passed up a World Cup semi-final or final following that quarter-final loss to New Zealand have sought compensation by resetting their sights on Marseille this weekend.

There were scant signs of green around the old port the day before the game, it being a Thursday, and estimates have placed the numbers travelling from Ireland at 7-10,000.

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It will be nothing like the 40-50,000 Green Army invasion of Paris for World Cup weekends and a Friday night kick-off on the opening weekend between the last two Grand Slam winners is certainly not with the paying spectators in mind. This is particularly so for the travelling fans, who are such a distinctive feature of the sport’s oldest international tournament.

Gerry Thornley in Marseille ahead of France vs Ireland

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The Ireland fans will no doubt turn up in droves for a first ever visit to Marseille for a night-time kick-off, attracted perhaps by the milder climes of this Mediterranean port city as well as a certain novelty value.

Farrell, who played for England against France in the Velodrome in 2007, enthused: “I think it’s great. We all want to see an open enough game. We know that pressure and territory is always part of that, but we know the type of game that France like to play on the break etc, and they know the type of game we want to play. To marry that up with decent conditions is going to be good for the game, you would hope.”

Both head coaches and teams have treated this competition, and this fixture, with the stand-alone importance it deserves in retaining the core of the sides which have given us stunning title deciders in the last two seasons.

As the home side after an anticlimactic home World Cup, France are under the bigger pressure to win, and that is reflected in Fabien Galthié's cautious selections of Gaël Fickou, Yoram Moefana on the wing and the decidedly short-term second row fix of Paul Gabrillagues and Paul Willemse.

It is all seemingly designed to bully Ireland into submission in a tighter game with less ball-in-play time and less risks than in last year’s meeting, despite Damian Penaud’s wonder try on that occasion.

Further evidence of this is the decision to replace the unwell Romain Taofifenua (6ft 8in, 135kg) on the bench with the uncapped 19-year-old Posolo Tuilagi (6ft 4½in, 145kg). The son of the former Samoan, Leicester and Perpignan backrower Henry, and nephew of English centre Manu, was the wrecking ball in last summer’s Under-20 World Cup Final when France beat Ireland.

But for all the pressure to win, the switch to Marseille (with Lille and Lyon to come for the other home games) will likely be a more refreshing and inspiring way of reconnecting with their public.

The Stade Vélodrome has usually been a happy hunting ground for Les Bleus. They have won 12 of their 14 Tests there since 2000, beating New Zealand, South Africa (twice), Australia (twice) and England (twice), the defeats being to Argentina in 2004 and the All Blacks in 2009.

Farrell expects France to test Ireland in the set piece, “the lineout especially” and this, of course, is the elephant in the room. Ireland had the 14th ranked lineout (83 per cent) at the World Cup, the lowest of any Tier One country.

Granted, they won the Grand Slam with an 86 per cent success rate, but so much of Ireland’s attacking, possession game emanates from this source.

Joe McCarthy is not a renowned lineout target, although he lifts like a JCB, and Farrell has invested his faith in the young lock as well as Tadhg Beirne (retained in large part for his breakdown work on both sides of the ball) as caller, Peter O’Mahony et al to resolve these issues, with James Ryan and the athletic Ryan Baird in reserve.

Ireland’s head coach also highlighted France’s threat over the ball, although they won the lowest number of turnovers in last season’s Six Nations, while of course Ireland had the highest retention rate on their own ruck ball and generated the quickest ruck ball.

No less than France, Ireland will stick to their guns and possession-based game in what should be another compelling clash of styles. But while McCarthy’s selection could infuse his older team-mates with energy, any team would miss the generational Johnny Sexton, not to mention the attacking threat of Garry Ringrose and Mack Hansen also.

It is a particularly big ask of Jack Crowley, albeit he has the confidence and ability. You certainly wouldn’t rule out both him and this Irish team breaking new ground with just a fourth Six Nations win in France in 52 years (and the last three were each by precisely two points.)

Ireland don’t have the normal edge in freshness of a non-World Cup season. But three months of Top 14 rugby may have taken the edge off the French pack’s conditioning. With a high ball-in-play time, were Ireland right in the mix inside the last quarter one could see them pulling through.

Against that, the stage seems set for the quick-footed, game-breaking Matthieu Jalibert, who describes his club halfback partner Maxime Lucu as “like an older brother to me”. And for all the absent Antoine Dupont’s brilliance, Lucu is also more of a facilitator, and if Les Bleus get their big carriers rumbling, Jalibert could flourish in the great man’s absence.

Either way, the margins are likely to be minuscule again and it should be another cracker. The Six Nations is back.

FRANCE: Thomas Ramos (Toulouse); Damian Penaud (Bordeaux-Bègles), Gaël Fickou (Racing 92), Jonathan Danty (La Rochelle), Yoram Moefana (Bordeaux-Bègles); Matthieu Jalibert (Bordeaux-Bègles), Maxime Lucu (Bordeaux-Bègles); Cyril Baille (Toulouse), Peato Mauvaka (Toulouse), Uini Atonio (La Rochelle); Paul Gabrillagues (Stade Francais), Paul Willemse (Montpellier); Francois Cros (Toulouse), Charles Ollivon (Toulon), Gregory Alldritt (La Rochelle, Capt).

Replacements: Julien Marchand (Toulouse), Reda Wardi (La Rochelle), Dorian Aldegheri (Toulouse), Posolo Tuilagi (Perpignan), Cameron Woki (Racing 92), Paul Boudehent (La Rochelle), Nolann Le Garrec (Racing 92), Louis Bielle-Biarrey (Bordeaux-Bègles).

IRELAND: Hugo Keenan (Leinster); Calvin Nash (Munster), Robbie Henshaw (Leinster), Bundee Aki (Connacht), James Lowe (Leinster); Jack Crowley (Munster), Jamison Gibson-Park (Leinster); Andrew Porter (Leinster), Dan Sheehan (Leinster), Tadhg Furlong (Leinster); Joe McCarthy (Leinster), Tadhg Beirne (Munster); Peter O’Mahony (Munster, Capt), Josh van der Flier (Leinster), Caelan Doris (Leinster).

Replacements: Rónan Kelleher (Leinster), Cian Healy (Leinster), Finlay Bealham (Connacht), James Ryan (Leinster), Ryan Baird (Leinster), Jack Conan (Leinster), Conor Murray (Munster), Ciarán Frawley (Leinster).

Referee: Karl Dickinson (Eng).

Overall head-to-head: Played 102, France 59 wins, Ireland 36 wins, 7 draws.

Last five meetings: (2019, 6N) Ireland 26, France 14. (2020, 6N) France 35, Ireland 27. (2021, 6N) Ireland 13, France 15. (2022, 6N) France 30, Ireland 24. (2023, 6N) Ireland 32, France 19.

Five-game formguide – France: W 27-13 v New Zealand (RWC), W 27-12 v Uruguay (RWC), W 96-0 v Namibia (RWC), W 60-7 v Italy (RWC), L v South Africa 28-29 (RWC QF). Ireland: W v Romania 82-8 (RWC), W 62-16 v Tonga (RWC), W 13-8 v South Africa (RWC), W 36-14 v Scotland (RWC), L 24-28 v New Zealand (RWC QF).

Forecast: France to win.