England must match physical South Africa but rugby gravity is hard to defy

Rugby World Cup semi-final: England v South Africa, Stade de France, Saturday, 8pm Irish time – Live on Virgin Media One

It was not supposed to be like this. From the host nation’s perspective the Stade de France should have been awash with Gallic pride, fluttering tricolours and beret-tossing passion. Instead, in the ugliest Parisian plot twist since The Hunchback of Notre Dame, the locals are now having to watch from the margins as England and South Africa scrap for a place in next weekend’s Rugby World Cup finale.

Small wonder a good few tickets have been popping up back on resale sites in the past few days. Even the staunchest of England and Springbok followers are not anticipating many romantic subplots or grand artistic flourishes. Never mind Quasimodo: no one familiar with these two teams expects this looming final eliminator to be easy on the eye.

Unless, that is, you are inside England’s inner sanctum. Given the self-inflicted wounds and scar tissue of the past two years, a one-point win via a drop goal ricocheting off somebody’s backside would be spectacularly beautiful. The squad have been based near Disneyland Paris this week and are still collectively hoping their dreams might yet come true.

It would be some story if it were to happen. When Eddie Jones departed last December he left behind a squad shorn of belief and optimism. Jones’s last game in charge, as it happens, was against South Africa in November. The Springboks were comfortable 27-13 winners at Twickenham, despite a 60th-minute red card for Thomas du Toit, and the limitations exposed in England’s game were there for all to see.

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The subsequent 11 months have also been far from straightforward. As recently as seven weeks ago, Jones’s replacement Steve Borthwick was presiding over a record of P9 W3 L6. Some of their August warm-up performances were seriously dire and the pool stage was a mixed bag. Aside from the Argentina game – when a 14-man England rekindled the nation’s love affair with drop goals – and Henry Arundell’s five tries against Chile, there were few signs of a sleeping giant reawakening.

Even the quarter-final against Fiji was a tense affair, with the scores level at 24-24 with 11 minutes left. Had Fiji’s goal-kicking been a touch more consistent, the outcome could have been appreciably different. And yet. When it comes to backs-to-the-wall defiance at World Cups, England have a habit of delivering. The simpler the equation – and the game plan – the better they respond. It was the case against the Pumas and, again, in the last 10 minutes against the spirited Fijians.

It is the reason why the semi-final may be slightly closer than many expect. Everyone knows South Africa have few weaknesses and enviable squad depth, but only 15 players can be on the field at any one time. And history is littered with occasions when sides forced to work as hard as the Boks did against France struggle to reach the same pitch the next week, particularly with a six-day turnaround.

No one, even so, is suggesting it will be remotely easy. If Eben Etzebeth does not get you, one of their pair of gifted wingers, Cheslin Kolbe and Kurt-Lee Arendse, probably will. Look down the two teamsheets and the horsepower at the Boks’ disposal, both in their starting XV and on the bench, is as daunting as ever. England are about to receive the definitive answer to the lingering question still pursuing them: are they a good side belatedly relocating their mojo or an average team yet to face the standard of opposition they are about to encounter?

There is even an argument that these latest Springboks are superior to those who lifted the Webb Ellis Cup four years ago. If the injured Malcolm Marx was available it would be case closed, particularly if the management ever decide to make greater use of the attacking talents of Canan Moodie, André Esterhuizen and Grant Williams. The sidelining of the brilliant Moodie, in particular, has been a recurring shame for the neutral.

But even the mighty Boks finish second occasionally, as Ireland showed as recently as last month. Match them physically and the nature of the challenge changes. It is equally vital to get ahead of them on the scoreboard and not to allow their suffocating blitz defence to dictate terms, as Scotland were reminded in the pool stage.

Then there is the weather. Gusty winds and daytime rain, with potential evening showers, is not the worst forecast for teams not intending to play much rugby. One rogue bounce or handling error could define the ball game. Might this be the night when the boos that have followed Owen Farrell around France turn to cheers?

Farrell’s role in dealing with the referee, Ben O’Keeffe, will be critical either way. Given the debate still simmering around some of the New Zealander’s decisions in the France v South Africa quarter-final, shouting and gesturing at the match officials is unlikely to find huge favour. Ominously, it is an area in which the statesmanlike Siya Kolisi is usually outstanding – unless O’Keeffe decides he was too lenient on the Boks last week and, this time, subconsciously goes the other way.

Wishful thinking? It would be no surprise if the frequency of South Africans going off for head injury assessments is the subject of closer scrutiny. Ditto the double-checking of charged-down conversions, assuming England actually score any tries. This could well be another of those games determined by inches, particularly surrounding the issues of tackle height and forward passes.

England will certainly need Alex Mitchell, up against his former Northampton colleague Cobus Reinach, to play a controlling role and for Freddie Steward to neutralise South Africa’s aerial threats. Bonne chance, too, to Dan Cole as he seeks to atone for his hard day’s night against the Boks in Yokohama in 2019, as well as all the other senior players whose distinguished Red Rose careers are drawing to a close. Their desire to finish on a high note helped drag England past Fiji and should ensure a feisty first 50 minutes at the very least.

Rugby gravity, though, is hard to defy indefinitely. South Africa are not the defending world champions or top of the rankings by chance. Nor are World Cup semi-finals won by accident. If France had been England’s opponents in Saint-Denis this weekend, Les Bleus would surely have prevailed. South Africa will be similarly horrified if Les Rosbifs are the ones singing loudest in the rain at full time.

ENGLAND: F Steward; J May, J Marchant, M Tuilagi, E Daly; O Farrell (capt), A Mitchell; J Marler, J George, D Cole; M Itoje, G Martin; C Lawes, T Curry, B Earl.

Replacements: T Dan, E Genge, K Sinckler, O Chessum, B Vunipola, D Care, G Ford, O Lawrence.

SOUTH AFRICA: D Willemse; K-L Arendse, J Kriel, D de Allende, C Kolbe; M Libbok, C Reinach; S Kitshoff, B Mbonambi, F Malherbe; E Etzebeth, F Mostert; S Kolisi (capt), P-S Du Toit, D Vermeulen.

Replacements: D Fourie, O Nche, V Koch, RG Snyman, K Smith, F de Klerk, H Pollard, W Le Roux.

Referee: Ben O’Keeffe (NZ).