Moment of truth for O’Brien’s Australia

A winter of anticipation and speculation finally gets put behind Australia this afternoon when it will be very much a case of put up or shut up for the Aidan O’Brien-trained colt in the Qipco 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket.

Of course ever since the regally-bred son of Galileo and Ouija Board won a Group Three at Leopardstown last September the talking has been done by O’Brien and while bottom-line commercial realities mean Ireland’s champion trainer is unlikely to talk down a horse, never before has he been as effusive about a Classic prospect.

The significance of describing Australia as the best he has ever trained can be gauged by O’Brien’s pursuit of a seventh Guineas success today, a stat that will place him alongside the 19th century English trainer John Scott as the most successful ever in the race.

Of the previous half-dozen to win up the historic Rowley Mile, Rock Of Gibraltar and George Washington were hardly unheralded either but the scale of Australia’s potential is such that only 20/1 odds are already available in places about a possible first Triple Crown since Nijinsky in 1970.

Six winners
All of O'Brien's previous six winners debuted their Classic campaigns in the Guineas and O'Brien said yesterday: "Everybody knows he's bred to get the Derby trip. We'll take it one race at a time. He has to start somewhere and it would be nice to start at Newmarket on a nice bit of ground."

Joseph O’Brien is on Australia which leaves War Command for Ryan Moore. The Dewhurst winner is vastly more accomplished on the book than his stable companion and also the hugely impressive Greenham winner Kingman.

Although like Australia he is unproven beyond Group Three company Kingman was genuinely electric at Newbury and has the plus of having definitely proved he has trained on from two.

The vibes from Ballydoyle surrounding Australia have been hugely encouraging for months but he is very much a reputation rather than the proven article yet and Guineas favourites praised to the hilt in the past such as St Nicholas Abbey and One Cool Cat came badly unstuck at Newmarket.

An argument can be made that War Command actually represents better betting value but come 4pm today the season’s first Classic will yet again settle all arguments.