Out-half issue no longer cut and dried

Prior to the start of yesterday's press conference in the Glenview Hotel, Warren Gatland wrote on the noticeboard: "who is at number 10?". He turned and chuckled at the attendant press corps, for he likes a good laugh at our expense.

The Irish coach knows full well that the above is the question exercising the minds of most of the media as well as rugby bar rooms up and down the country; all the more so after David Humphreys has guided Ulster to European glory. But it's probably the question which is most exercising his mind, too, as well as his fellow Wise Men, Donal Lenihan and Philip Danaher.

Much earlier in the season, attempts at reviving the old Eric Elwood-Humphreys debate seemed to irritate the Irish coach, but lately he has acknowledged that it is a good media story. In this, he is also acknowledging Humphreys' increasingly good and consistent form for Ulster.

Certainly, Humphreys has never made such a compelling case during Gatland's tenure and, at the least, must be pushing Elwood very, very close indeed. To say that the issue is a cut and dried case in favour of Elwood, in the coach's mind or anyone else's, seems wide of the mark.

Upon taking over from Brian Ashton, it had been pretty clear in Gatland's mind. Elwood immediately came in for the trip to Paris, gave the team a solidifying presence at out-half, carried out the gameplan pretty much to the letter and nearly orchestrated a famous victory.

In South Africa, Elwood began the tour in sparkling form against Boland, nailing his kicks and directing a six-try performance. Although he was subsequently injured for the Western Province game, and Humphreys kicked well and defended bravely, the understudy's flawed performance against Griqualand and Elwood's commanding Test performances, especially in the first one, left little room for discussion.

Things began changing with Elwood's knee injury, sustained in Connacht's Donnybrook defeat against Leinster last August - at which point he was still playing very well. However, the ensuing lay-off of over two months clearly left him rusty on his comeback for Connacht and then in the World Cup qualifiers in November. By comparison, Humphreys has been increasingly on top of his game. Whereas he has been imbued with the winning habit, Elwood has been suffering in a losing team every week with Galwegians. In times past, Elwood's higher winning percentage in an Irish shirt as compared to Humphreys was striking, but this season the ball has been decidedly on the other foot.

In 14 games in his truncated season, Elwood has been on the winning team only three times - ironically against Ulster and Humphreys last August, and against Georgia and Romania. In utter contrast, Humphreys has played 20 times, even returning seamlessly from a shoulder injury and one-month absence as if he hadn't been away when producing a near vintage display in Ulster's semi-final win over Stade Francais.

Humphreys has not only played more rugby, but far more winning rugby. In 20 matches this season, he has been on the winning side 15 times and the losing side only four times.

Gatland must be acutely conscious of this. Of course, it doesn't necessarily follow that good club or provincial form will translate into the same in the international arena nor, for that matter, does it follow that poor club or provincial form will also be reflected at international level.

Elwood wouldn't be the first player to find a step up in class a blissful release from the rigours of a losing cause at a lower level. Furthermore, by all accounts his form has been improving of late, as shown by three tries in his last two starts for Galwegians.

In addition, he has also been taking on his customary responsibilities: the place-kicks, the restarts and the penalties to touch. Humphreys has not had to do that. Instead, Simon Mason's prodigious boot has been freeing him of all these responsibilities, and there must be a genuine concern that this has all contributed to Humphreys' being so on top of his tactical game.

This must intensify the dilemma for Gatland. In the longer-term, were Niall Woods to underline his credentials in the A game on Friday and transfer his scintillating club form into an Irish jersey, it would go some way to opening the door for Humphreys.

His performance last Saturday, as Harry Williams underlined, gave the lie to the notion that Humphreys cannot enact a gameplan which largely revolves around putting boot to ball. Humphreys' line-kicking has always been first-class and in the European Cup final he gave us the full repertoire.

So, cue his selection against France? This presupposes that Ireland are going to take a leaf out of Ulster's book and kick the leather off the ball, by kicking to the corners or bombarding Emile N'Tamack (or whoever plays full-back for France).

However, while Humphreys kicked the ball at least 75 per cent of the time against Colomiers, it's worth recalling that the official match stats on the Test against South Africa in November showed that Elwood passed 17 of the balls that he received, ran four and kicked only two.

What works for the goose needn't necessarily work for the gander and given the way the Irish game has evolved over the last year it's unlikely that they will revert to an Ulster type gameplan this Saturday. For starters, Ireland possess some truly world-class forwards, particularly in the ballcarrying department, in the likes of Keith Wood, Paul Wallace, Peter Clohessy - well, pretty much all of them.

All of which means that they are well capable of stringing several rucks or phases of play together, and thereby retaining possession longer without kicking for position. On top of which, Elwood is the man in possession and, though offcolour in the autumn, cannot be said to have really let Ireland down, at least not in the Gatland era.

Still, when it comes to distribution, Humphreys is the superior player. No less than Elwood, he doesn't sit in the pocket as much as he used to. He's also quicker, provides more of a threat to the back-row, and more than any other Irish out-half, and maybe even any other Irish player, is capable of a game-breaking moment such as that try against Stade Francais.

Humphreys proved his bravery on Saturday, led the defensive line up quickly and he's also utterly on top of his game. If he's not tried now, he might wonder when he ever will be, although - revealingly or not - he doesn't expect to play. It would be no surprise if Gatland gambled on him, although equally the less surprising selection would be Elwood - with Humphreys more of a weapon on the bench.

An intriguing one. With Malcolm O'Kelly, and now probably Andy Ward, ruled out, the rest of the team would seem to pick itself: O'Shea; Bishop, Maggs, Bell, Dempsey; Humphreys, McGuinness; Clohessy, Wood, Wallace, Johns (capt), Davidson, Miller, Costello, O'Cuinneagain.