Meath have right balance to progress

It is tempting to fire form books out the window and just flip a coin when it comes to analysing Meath-Dublin derbys. This will be typical fare - gruellingly tight, hard hits, close marking and, I think, not much between them at the end. But Meath have the balance and experience to progress.

It must be remembered that Dublin manager Tom Carr is still trying to mould a settled team here and he has shown tremendous willingness and patience in rebuilding in key areas. The full-back line has proven particularly worrisome, as underlined by the introduction of Peadar Andrews for this match.

That someone who was only drafted onto the panel after the league should be given a starting berth a few months later is indicative of the problems the Dublin management see in their back line. The youngster did well against Laois but it should be pointed out that, like Tomas Lynch whom he replaced, he did struggle on Stephen Kelly initially also, giving away a couple of frees.

He definitely settled as the game went on but Dublin operated with an extra defender that day after Damien Delaney was sent off. The form of this fullback line tomorrow will be crucial to the outcome.

I expect both managers to unveil similar intentions. Meath will drag Nigel Nestor and Donal Curtis back and pump direct ball for Ollie Murphy and Graham Geraghty to capitalise on. Dublin will most likely take a similar avenue in trying to bring Ian Robertson into the game.

Hence, the midfield will become a melting pot, with a host of big men competing for the ball - Meath's Nestor and Enda Sheehy for Dublin are essentially third midfielders. John McDermott, of course, is still in bereavement but so professional is his attitude and so evident is his pride in Meath that he is the kind of individual who can put personal trauma aside for the hour and concentrate on the job at hand. His decision to play was brave.

Whoever profits in sweeping up what I believe will be a lot of breaking ball should go on to win this. Jonathan McGee has impressed me for Dublin and Dessie Farrell is a central influence but I think that Trevor Giles and Paddy Reynolds and Hank Traynor are particularly adept at honing in on loose ball and creating from there.

The loss of Tommy Dowd is incalculable. Against Offaly, he and Ollie Murphy constantly rotated and thrived off one another. Evan Kelly has a lot to do to fill Dowd's boots. It is impossible to replace a character of such strength and perseverance and fighting qualities. When Meath were indifferent early on against Offaly, Dowd soldiered and dragged them through. They may need someone else to do that tomorrow.

Although Meath look as steady as they did in 1996, they have yet to exhibit the same flair. Giles is still at the recuperative stage and the game style is such that they nearly bypass the half-forward line now. It is blisteringly direct. I don't think it will be an especially high-scoring game, but again Meath look the more likely to fashion a goal chance.

Dublin have the footballers to match them - Brian Stynes excelled in the replay against Laois after a miserable time in the drawn game and Farrell has the potential to turn the game for them. Jim Gavin and Jason Sherlock also have the capacity to make enough mischief for Robertson to exploit - and his success against Fay will, I think, have the biggest bearing on what way the result swings.

Psychologically, Dublin are in a beautiful position. Nobody expects them to go on from here and they are perceived as a raw team still. The jury is definitely out on them, especially defensively. I know the likes of Keith Galvin has been around for a while and Paul Croft has fine ability but as a unit, they have yet to cement in the same way their opponents have. The task before them is not at all impossible. The magnitude of this game will focus their minds and I think they will acquit themselves well. We won't see any lapses. If they win enough ball, then they will match Meath for the majority of the match. Certain aspects will have to be flawless.

There'll be little room for missed frees. They can't allow Meath to break the game open as the did against Offaly. They need to engineer scores from forwards other than Robertson, especially if Darren Fay ties him up.

If they succeed in these things, they are in with a shout. But I believe Meath will do better defensively and ultimately create enough scores to build a winning total. It won't be spectacular, but effective and enough to give them a Leinster title.

In an interview with Keith Duggan