Leinster can learn from Thomond firestorm and stand firm

RUGBY:There's nothing special from this Leicester side but tradition and repetition ad nauseum

I WATCHED the first half between Harlequins and Leicester last Saturday before heading off to Thomond Park. Harlequins were in fine fettle, creating plenty and leading 10-0. Their pace and variety had Leicester rooted to the spot. In Thomond Park I was very excited as I felt Munster had the beating of Leinster and expected a humdinger. Like Harlequins, Leinster’s variety and pace swamped Munster and they led 20-9 at half time.

By the time I got back home very late, thanks to the festivities in Aubars, I discovered that, predictably, Leicester won by scoring 17 points in the second half to Harlequins’ three. Facing a similar uphill struggle, Munster outscored Leinster 15-3.

There are but two teams in Europe that could come from behind while strangling the life out of quality opposition, restricting them in both cases to three second-half points. Hardly a coincidence! The beauty of our disjointed competitions system allows Leinster to face them both within eight days.

Although I thought Ica Nacewa and, in particular, James Coughlan, were extraordinary last Saturday, my regard for Ronan O'Gara increased massively. He has long been a class general in the pivot position but the battering he took against Leinster no man should have to face. At one stage Sean O'Brien Terminator-style surveyed the red line ahead of him and immediately pounced on O'Gara. I could only imagine the energy levels draining out of him with each hit like a computer game hero. All we were missing were the energy bars on the screen. My admiration stems from the state he must have been in physically when that last chance came his way. There was no debate, he placed the ball and duly drove it over the bar. Brilliant!

The relevance should not be lost on Leinster as they face ‘Munster 2’ tomorrow but one without O’Gara. In that first half in the Stoop, Harlequins, through pace and great offloads, kept the ball out of contact stretching the Leicester defence. As the phases evolved the Leicester front five began to marshal a wider channel making a huge amount of wide hits. This freed up the Leicester backs for more important work.

If Leinster commit to the multiple patient building of phases it will afford one major advantage. The Leicester problem – they can rely too heavily on their fatty fringe defenders who are brilliant defenders but do have holes.

With that in mind, Luke Fitzgerald could wreak havoc off ruck ball. Harlequins’ scrumhalf Danny Care caused real problems around the fringe and Isaac Boss’s combative style is the man to replicate. The more Leinster can suck in the fringe numbers, the more space for Nacewa to exploit. Multiple phase around the fringe, blindside wingers etc.

Further out, 19-year-old Manu Tuilagi at 13 can put the fear of God into ball-carriers but he does err on ample bulk, becomes very narrow and can shoot up at pace. If his timing is spot on it’s curtains Leinster’s ball-carrier but it’ll be a rarity so it’s an opportunity for Leinster who should entice him to shoot up through the Sexton wind-around play.

Wider still is big brother winger Alesana Tuilagi. I’ve reviewed his performance in the final of May 2009. Having expected an influence, he was exposed by Johnny Sexton’s tactical kicking and lack of Leicester opportunity. I don’t expect this to change as the Leinster pace of play can leave him lagging behind and at such speeds he falls off buckets of tackles especially on his inside shoulder.

Late switches between Nacewa and winger will do nicely. That said, Leicester do get him involved off first phase especially kick-off receipts. It is, however, the kid Tuilagi that has the wow factor. I’m not sure how much football he possesses and whether raw athleticism will be enough to tax Gordon D’Arcy and Brian O’Driscoll. He doesn’t appear to have an offloading game which means a tough physical day for O’Driscoll but one well within his compass.

Tradition would dictate Leicester supremacy in the scrum. Apart from two early dubious penalties against Harlequins and the sin bins, Last of the MohicansJoe Marler was more than comfortable with dangerous Dan Cole. Pending the referee's interpretation, I think the Leinster boys will prove more than a match in the set-piece and far more explosive off it. Although great fulcrums, neither Thomas Waldrom nor Jordan Crane have that threat from number eight. It is a big day for Jamie Heaslip but I fancy O'Brien the odd time off the base.

Tom Croft aside, the Leinster lineout should have the pace over the ground and variety to get better than their fair share in the air. What is crucial for Leinster is an early sacking of any Leicester lineout maul threat. Both Nathan Hines and Leo Cullen are excellent at same, so get it down. Leinster though attack in 15 zones across the pitch which makes defending them extremely tough. The only option Leicester have is to kill the blue ball by counter-rucking.

In possession Leicester will flirt with Tuilagi initially but will ultimately attack narrow through Toby Flood who, regardless of shirt colour, looks for the gap. Leinster should tempt him down the channel and hammer him.

With three games remaining in the Aviva Premiership, Leicester have guaranteed a playoff spot and in doing so hammered Bath in their first game after the Six Nations. They have scored a monstrous 54 tries (to 39 for Leinster for same fixtures). As churlish as it may sound, there’s nothing special from this Leicester side but tradition and repetition ad nauseum. In beating Leicester in Edinburgh, Leinster have neutralised the tradition and in erring big time in Thomond Park’s second half Munster revival, Leinster will have the forewarning for Leicester’s repetition.

That said, it is the unseen that is their strength particularly around the championship minutes. Look at their back three, which includes Horacio Agulla, where there’s very little creativity and pace in attack or defence. If facing a growing Leicester, then Leinster should find balance between the scoreboard, drop kicks and upping the pace. Through the guts will pay dividends for the Blues. All that said there’s no Rocky Elsom this time round . . .

Sunday brings Ulster back into the quarter- finals. Unfortunately, Northampton learnt a massive lesson in Thomond Park at this stage last year. Their long sabbatical is similar to Ulster’s but they are more battle-hardened and experienced from that Munster mauling. I’m convinced Northampton will not win this competition but will make the semi-finals. Dylan Hartley for one is the antithesis of James Downey. Both are crucial to Northampton but come a real battle I’d much prefer Downey beside me.