Ireland are favourites on merit

Six Nations Rugby: No disrespect to the Scots and the Italians, but now we're into the meaty stage of the RBS Six Nations.

The sense of expectation has been rising giddily these past couple of weeks. Tickets are like gold dust. Come 3.0 tomorrow and we know Lansdowne Road will be in a frenzy. Tomorrow can't come soon enough.

Ireland v England has always been the one with extra resonance, and the backdrop to this one has hardly diluted its appeal. Ireland, in a campaign of dizzying promise, stand with two from two, and England nought from two - which gives a whole new slant to their sponsor's logo.

But while there's a wild sense of optimism around, there's also a realisation that to date Ireland have merely done what they would be expected to do, namely beat the two wooden spoon contenders. England, by contrast, have lost to the other two unbeaten championship contenders, and by two and one points at that.

The memory of them destroying South Africa even more clinically than Ireland had done a week earlier last autumn hasn't gone away, nor the three-try comeback which should have yielded another win against Australia two weeks later.

About their only sub-par performance in their recent three-game losing run was against the Welsh, but they've a much better balanced 10-12-13 axis and kicking game now. If the French committed grand larceny at Twickenham a fortnight ago, they were assisted by England leaving the key in the front door and heading out for a picnic. On another day England would have won that game by 20-plus points.

Although there must have been a case for restoring the leadership qualities of Matt Dawson, Andy Robinson's loyalty to these players will surely be rewarded with a mighty effort. The English players will know that if they lose tomorrow, even if they put on 100 points at home to Italy and Scotland it'll hardly matter a whit. If this is Ireland's first big test, it is England's last.

If England had reckoned on 20-plus spots for the Lions tour, that figure is liable to shrink to barely half that if they underperform and lose here. As an aside, the winners tomorrow will claim fifth place in the IRB rankings. Were Wales to beat France today, that would offer tomorrow's winners the opportunity to climb to fourth. But global rankings are even more of a side issue.

Lewis Moody flew into Dublin last night and was upbeat about playing after a day on a drip in a London hospital having antibiotics for his septic finger. Robinson will confirm Moody's presence or otherwise today.

In choosing Matt Stevens as his one change at tighthead instead of Duncan Bell - though he may still have a big impact in the last quarter or so - Robinson is opting for more of a ball-carrying threat. In tandem with Steve Thompson it certainly gives England a more dynamic frontrow.

The Irish frontrow generally survives when question marks are most loudly expressed, but Robinson probably also realises the scrum has been greatly disempowered anyhow. The Irish lineout surely won't wreak the same kind of damage it did a year ago, nor reap such a rich dividend off their maul as they did in Murrayfield, but the pack's performance that day was the benchmark.

Jason Robinson was entitled to claim that Ireland hadn't come up against a defence like England's (only one cracking good try by Wales conceded in two games) nor, one ventures, will more have been asked of the Irish defence to date. More than anything the first-up tackling and preventing line breaks may well decide Ireland's fate. Ronan O'Gara will require, and is entitled to, plenty of protection from Johnny O'Connor and co.

The return of Brian O'Driscoll, who came through training at Lansdowne Road unscathed yesterday, alongside Shane Horgan gives Ireland their talisman, defensive strength and midfield balance, and the support trailers and finishing ability of Geordan Murphy and Denis Hickie ensure a cutting edge every bit as sharp as England's.

The time was when Irish teams could scarcely cope with the baggage of favouritism for a match, let alone a whole championship. Not that it's something they've been burdened with too much in this fixture - 1985 perhaps being the last occasion. But the evidence of this ultra-experienced team is they treat it as an irrelevance.

South Africa coach Jake White, as is his wont, has supplemented Andy Robinson's eve-of-tournament querying over whether Ireland have what it takes to 'go all the way'. But that's only liable to get Ireland's dander up. Besides, there are far more question marks about England.

Will Charlie Hodgson kick his goals? If he misses one or two, the murmurs will go round Lansdowne Road, and what will the effect be on the red rose mentality? Ditto Steve Thompson's throwing. The on-field leadership in the white heat of battle is also something Robinson himself raised before the first week, and so far it's not been answered positively. And if it came down to it, O'Gara is the more proven outhalf in a crisis.

A good start seems more imperative than normal. One could well envisage a scenario where England start well, the confidence flows through their veins, and they go on to win. But, on their return to a ground where they've won 16 out of 17 games under Eddie O'Sullivan, Ireland will surely start better.

And whether ahead early, or entering into a nail-biting last quarter, the squad with 915 caps as opposed to the one with 482, has the cohesion and self-belief to pull through.

Overall head-to-head record: Played 117 (Ireland 40 wins, England 69 wins, 8 draws).

Highest scores: Ireland 26-21 (1974), England 50-18 (2000).

Biggest wins: Ireland 22-0 (1947), England 46-6 (1997).

Last five games: 2000 - England 50 Ireland 18; 2001 - Ireland 20 England 14; 2002 - England 45 Ireland 11; 2003 - Ireland 6 England 42; 2004 - England 13 Ireland 19.

Formguide: Ireland - W W W W W. England - W W L L L.

Odds (Paddy Powers): 4/7 Ireland, 20/1 Draw, 11/8 England. Handicap odds (= England +4pts) 10/11 Ireland, 18/1 Draw, 10/11 England.

Forecast: Ireland to win.