Weekend Gaelic Games previews

SATURDAY

Ulster SFC semi-final

Monaghan v Donegal Kingspan Breffni Park, 7.0; Sky Sports 5

There is a sense that the balance in this fixture, now in its fourth straight year, is tilting towards Monaghan. Superficially, that might be hard to explain given that nothing much appears to separate the counties since their meeting in last year’s final but given the incremental margins between the teams even the small events can be significant.

The teams met in the final league Sunday of the regulation season in April. Monaghan had to recover to win the match and needed the win to avoid relegation. They accomplished it and prolonged a poor run by Donegal who nonetheless qualified for the semi-finals.

Both had comfortable wins in their quarter-finals. Donegal had more of a battle with adversity in that they lost Neil McGee to a red card before half-time but ultimately Fermanagh, having missed a penalty to give them the lead, wilted and posed little threat to their depleted opponents. Monaghan stuttered in the first half but Down’s level of engagement thereafter was consistent with astral travel.

Donegal have been arguing against the growing view that they are running on empty but so many of their most influential players from four years ago are struggling for fitness that it’s hard to see how they can go up the gears for this match. McGee’s suspension is another blow.

If Rory Gallagher can conjure the tactical alchemy to man-mark Conor McManus out of the match, Monaghan would be in new and alarming territory but in McGee’s absence that will be harder and even allowing for the fact that McManus wasn’t at his best against Down, Monaghan managed to put up 2-14 that wasn’t in brackets after his name. That suggests that the evidence this season that Monaghan have been a bit more adventurous hasn’t been misleading.

There is such claustrophobia when these teams meet that it is difficult to be too categorical about the outcome but the history of the fixture shows that Monaghan have had the upper hand in the past few years and that mightn’t be all coincidence. For example manager Malachy O’Rourke has always got his match-ups right for these contests, whether it’s been Vinny Corey on Michael Murphy or Colin Walshe on Patrick McBrearty.

Murphy didn’t looked completely right the last day and Donegal need him in top gear for this. Again, maybe tellingly Neil Gallagher, who was a catalyst in the second-half comeback last year, is injured. Odhrán Mac Niallais had an impact against Fermanagh but he struggled for impact against Monaghan last year.

All of the evidence from 11 months ago has to be seen in the context of a one-point margin but in the time since Donegal have looked more jaded and less within reach of the seismic performances they have produced in the past five years.

Familiar rivalries in Ulster aren’t fertile ground for forecasts but there’s enough evidence to believe that the champions can advance to the final.

Last meeting: This is the fourth championship encounter in a row between the counties with champions Monaghan 2-1 ahead, having won 0-11 to 0-10 last year – their fifth victory in this fixture during six meetings over the last 21 years. 
Odds: Donegal 11/10, Monaghan evens and 15/2 the draw.
Injuries: Monaghan have question marks over Barry McGinn who has a damaged shoulder. Donegal are expected to be without Neil Gallagher, just back on the panel but who has a shoulder injury, and Karl Lacey, a calf muscle problem, and are worried about Frank McGlynn's hamstring. Suspension: Donegal's Neil McGee is serving the first part of a two-match ban.
Just the ticket: Stand €25/£20, terrace €15/£12, juveniles free of charge and reductions for students and senior citizens.
Referee: Ciarán Branagan (Down).
Verdict: Monaghan.

All-Ireland SFC qualifiers – Round One B

Antrim v Limerick, Corrigan Park, 2.0

The teams switched places in the league with Antrim going up to and Limerick heading down from Division Three. In the championship both gave feisty displays but in Antrim’s case they had one of their blank spells and let Fermanagh get too far away in the first half and couldn’t chase down the lead.

Limerick were combative when losing by a score to Clare but have experienced turbulence since with players leaving the panel and lining out for last week’s intermediate hurling match and are unlikely to achieve their first win of the year given Antrim’s venue advantage.

Down v Longford, Newry, 2.0

Down are a scalp that Longford took in the past and they might well fancy this as well although having to travel north diminishes the chances. Otherwise it’s been a thoroughly wretched year for Eamonn Burns and his team and a whitewash of a league campaign was compounded by the awful thrashing dished out by Monaghan earlier this month.

Longford though are hardly surfing a wave at the moment after a firm beating from Offaly in Leinster. Hard to call in the circumstances but Down get an unconvincing nod.

Offaly v London, O'Connor Park, 2.0

A frustrating championship for Offaly, whose campaign started with a good win Longford – their first in nine years in the province – but concluded in a narrow defeat by Westmeath in a match they could have won had they not made such a poor start to the match but which needed a bit more dynamism up front from their main forwards like Niall McNamee who had been in fine form against Longford.

London were game enough against Mayo but overwhelmed by the end, suggesting that a first qualifier win in five years is unlikely. Offaly aren’t exactly flying but won’t stumble over this hurdle.

Wexford v Fermanagh, Innovate Wexford Park, 5.0

Fermanagh’s defeat in Ballybofey was disappointing given the one-man advantage for the whole second half but the attack didn’t function at all well and managed just one point from play. Wexford, despite a free scoring league, admittedly in Division Four, were hardly burning it up either when going down against Kildare, who were poor enough on the day themselves.

This is a bit of a trek for Fermanagh but after a season competing with opposition a full two divisions above their opponents they should be too strong up front even allowing for Wexford’s defying such hierarchies in last year’s qualifiers when beating Down.

Christy Ring Cup final replay

Antrim v Meath, Croke Park, 5.0

So much has been vented about this match, brought about after an incorrect scoreline caused the cup to be presented to Meath and subsequently declared a draw, that the actual hurling got forgotten. Antrim’s attitude towards the title could be divined from the popular suggestion that Meath could keep the trophy as long as Antrim got another shot at promotion to the MacCarthy Cup.

The county’s attitude on the pitch didn’t entirely substantiate those aspiration after a good early lead was thrown away and credit to Meath, they took ruthless advantage but it’s difficult to see how they can re-motivate themselves for what would be another shock unless the favourites have completely lost critical mass in the controversy.

More likely they’ve picked up a better appreciation of their opponents as well as a pile more urgency.

SUNDAY

Leinster SFC semi-finals

Kildare v Westmeath, Croke Park, 4.15; RTÉ One

The preservation order slapped on this fixture to ensure that there were more people watching than playing was, as well as being sensible, a stark reflection on the competitive status of the Leinster championship.

Kildare, who tumbled from competing with Dublin to gazing up the ladder at them in the space of five years, were one of the big Croke Park counties with their large population and enthusiasm but that has become strictly past tense.

Part of the problem you’d imagine for a sceptical public is that there have been horror stories on Jones’s Road – encompassing massive (19 and 27 points respectively), demoralising defeats by Dublin and Kerry last season and a scarcely more upbeat loss in April’s Division Three final – in the past four matches.

Even the win over Wexford in last month’s Leinster quarter-final was fairly grim and prompted Cian O’Neill to pensive concerns about shooting accuracy and the high number of fouls.

Awaiting them should they win this is the expected prospect of another date with Dublin, whose semi-final with Meath follows this. The county did well to get out of Division Three at the first time of asking but the team hasn’t looked that upbeat in the meantime.

Westmeath on the other hand are ostensibly in a worse place – well, no “ostensible” about it. They slid into Division Four while Kildare were going in the other direction – but they got a decent bounce out of beating Offaly in the quarter-finals.

The mood appears buoyant and unlike their opponents they had a couple of memorable days out in Croke Park last summer, from the sensational comeback to secure a first win in history against Meath to a first Leinster final in 11 years which they lost but by Dublin’s smallest winning margin of the provincial championship.

John Heslin and Kieran Martin looked in form during the Offaly match and it’s all in contrast to Kildare’s gloomier demeanour and injury-list of Paul Cribbin, Daniel Flynn and Kevin Feely.

The bookies have Kildare short odds-on to win this. It’s hard to understand.

Last meeting: The Leinster quarter-final of 2005 when Kildare won by 0-14 to 0-11 at Croke Park to depose the then Leinster champions.
Odds: Kildare 2/5, Westmeath 11/4 and 8/1 the draw.
Injuries: Westmeath have "a clean bill of health," according to manager Tom Cribbin but Kildare will be without Paul Cribbin, Daniel Flynn and Kevin Feely.
Just the ticket: Stand €30, terrace €20, juveniles €5 and reductions for students and senior citizens but not in Hogan Stand.
Referee: Derek O'Mahoney (Tipperary).
Verdict: Westmeath.

Dublin v Meath, Croke Park, 6.35; RTÉ One

There is some medium-term optimism in Meath with the minors giving Dublin a good slapping and promising players farther down the line but for the immediate future it’s hard to see a power shift.

Mick O’Dowd has been cursed with injuries and sundry departures this season but the team looked buoyant against Louth in the last round although once again they made life really hard for themselves by letting their opponents notionally back into the contest in the second half.

There were positives: Harry Rooney showed well at centrefield and Cillian O’Sullivan had a terrific debut, his mobility and use of the ball a constant threat to Louth whereas Eamon Wallace’s pace on the wing was a reminder of what trouble he caused Dublin back in 2013, which was the last time Dublin failed to win a match in Leinster by double digits.

By rights Meath should be leading the fight against the champions in the province but their performances have been fitful since running their opponents reasonably close in 2012 and ’13 and last year’s meltdown against Westmeath, which obviated the need to play Dublin and hardly helped morale.

It’s been hard to get a precise read on Dublin’s form. Obviously it was far too good for Laois but the early blitz of goals and the sending-off of John O’Loughlin acted like a sedative on the match as a contest.

Dublin’s attention wandered and Laois plugged away admirably but it would have been interesting to see more tension.

One thing that was noticed was Dublin’s leaking of two goals for the first time in the province for five years, a salutary reminder that the absence of Rory O’Carroll is unlikely to be without consequences at various points during the summer.

Otherwise though there was little to inform Jim Gavin apart from the return of Eoghan O’Gara to championship for the first time in two years.

It’s always the Dublin forwards and their rapacity that commands attention when opponents weigh up the challenge.

In that regard Meath had good performances in defence from their captain and outstanding player Donal Keogan and Mickey Bourke, who between them defused the Louth dangermen Ryan Burns and Conor Grimes.

In fairness to the Louth forwards they were isolated for long stretches as well and the Meath defence can expect to be far busier in this game with Dublin’s higher press, greater numbers and more explosive movement in attack.

It will be a different world for Meath and whereas reducing the 16-point deficit of two years ago would be important it’s touch and go whether they will be within 10 by the final whistle.

Last meeting: The Leinster final of 2014 when Dublin won by 3-20 to 1-10 at Croke Park.
Odds: Dublin 1/50, Meath 14/1 and 28/1 the draw.
Injuries: Paddy Andrews has been deemed fit to play for Dublin by manager Jim Gavin but Paul Flynn has been troubled by a hamstring injury, which kept him out of the Laois match whereas Meath, aside from the litany of long-term injuries, still have doubts over James McEntee, Conor McGill and Brian Power, who all missed the Louth match.
Just the ticket: Stand €30, terrace €20, juveniles €5 and reductions for students and senior citizens but not in Hogan Stand.
Referee: Rory Hickey (Clare). 
Verdict: Dublin.