First cut could prove lethal

RUGBY:This is it then, le Crunch yet again. The nagging feeling remains that the 2007 Coupe du Monde in France has already served up its best game and that was in Cardiff.

Yet just because France won a match that would have graced the final does not necessarily mean they will now go on to be immortalised and legends forever more in their own country. As the ultra-wary French might say, au contraire.

This is England, after all: a dreary, prosaic England who have nothing like the pedigree of four years ago but have a mighty scrum, a gnarled juggernaut of a pack and a left boot belonging to some bloke called Jonny.

It would be just like them to spoil the biggest Parisian rugby party of all time a week hence.

History has shown an uncanny ability to repeat itself at this World Cup, in which case France had better be warned, for not only did England beat them at this point four years ago - when Wilkinson kicked all his side's points in a 24-7 win - but the French have shown an uncanny habit of following their best games at World Cups with something considerably flatter.

That, on the face of it, would seem the single biggest imponderable of tonight's first semi-final. Only the French could have produced such an inspired defensive effort and such daring, brilliant opportunism against the All Blacks, but probably only the All Blacks could have extracted it from them. They'll surely not produce such concentration, mental and physical, for 80 minutes tonight. They'll surely concede more than two penalties. In a nutshell, they cannot possibly play as well again.

But then again, this is a World Cup semi-final on home soil, one game away from a crack at immortality, or "80 minutes away from heaven" and an opportunity to write a glorious chapter in French sports history", as Damien Traille put it. Maybe they'll be inspired by it, and maybe they won't have to play as well again. For on all available evidence they are the superior, more rounded team. Opportunist though England were against Samoa and Tonga, they couldn't score a try against South Africa or Australia.

Their primary weapon was their scrum, but France's Pieter de Villiers is no Matt Dunning, a man Andrew Sheridan should pack in his suitcase and bring with him everywhere.

The aggressive French defence is nothing like as soft on the outside as the Wallabies' drift defence, which so encouraged Mike Catt and Wilkinson to keep the ball in hand and give it width. The pressure from Serge Betsen and the outstanding Thierry Dusautoir will be altogether different.

As La Marseillaise and Allez les Bleus attempt to drown out Swing Low (up to 40,000 English are expected to invade the French capital) the atmosphere should crackle. Unlike a rain-sodden Sydney four years ago, there ought to be no succour for England, or fear for France, in the weather; the forecast is for a clear night in Saint Denis.

Of course England will rumble and meet the French head on around the fringes, and it could be that, à la four years ago, territory and Wilkinson's boot will get them there without a try. But the try-scoring potential is much more obviously in the blue corner.

The French maul has if anything looked stronger and in the creative force of Yannick Jauzion and the Toulouse wingers Vincent Clerc and Cedric Heymans, France have far more of a cutting edge. And if the Twickenham and Marseille games are anything to go by, the explosiveness of Sebastien Chabal, the dynamism of Dimitri Szarzewski, the gamebreaking nerve, pace and vision of Frédéric Michalak and more, the French pack altogether more impact off the bench.

Admittedly, a tense, chess-like start, featuring much aerial ping-ping in the battle for territory, could have a huge bearing on the outcome.

"The side that controls their emotions, especially in the first 20 minutes, will go a long way towards winning the game," said Brian Ashton yesterday.

"On the whole, it is going to be a trench war; that is absolutely certain," said France lock Jérôme Thion. "The most important thing is to win, not to play beautiful rugby."

Nonetheless, semi-finals have shown a tendency to throw up at least one unforgettable contest. But for all that - as if to underline the importance of a good start - eight of the previous 10 semi-finals have been won by the side that scored first.

Although England are a much changed side, not least in the emergence of Andy Gomarsall and Mike Catt either side of Wilkinson, as was evidenced in their 36-0 defeat to South Africa, coming from behind would not appear to be their forte.

Not so the French, not least with that bench. Nevertheless, in what is liable to be a low-scoring affair, the first try could certainly be critical.

France look far more capable of scoring it, though amid the suspicion that à la the quarter-final they might initially be too cautious (or too fearful) for their own good, it could come later rather than sooner. Either way, they ought to score it, and earn themselves a shot at immortality.

Referee: Jonathan Kaplan (South Africa).

Last five meetings: 2007: France 22 England 9 (Marseille); England 15 France 21 (Twickenham) England 26 France 18 (Twickenham); 2006: France 31 England 6 (Stade de France); 2005: England 17 France 18 (Twickenham).

Betting (Paddy Power): 1/3 France, 22/1 Draw, 9/4 England. Handicap odds (England +9pts) 10/11 France, 20/1 Draw, 10/11 England.

Forecast: France to win.