Connacht's fortress in danger of breaching

RUGBY:ON HIS final trek to the Sportsground and a second successive defeat there, Michael Cheika lamented that he could not change the culture of this fixture. He oughtn't have been too hard on himself, for Leinster's difficulties in this part of the world long pre-date the Australian's tenure.

Prior to Leinster’s last two visits, they had won four on the spin at the Sportsground – three of them under Cheika’s watch. To put that in further context, Leinster sides dating back to the early 90s have lost eight of their last 14 visits to the Sportsground.

That Connacht should have revived their old Indian sign over their richer cousins in recent times is remarkable really, when you consider that Leinster’s attendance for their recent game against Munster at the Aviva would comfortably eclipse Connacht’s aggregate home crowd for the season and, what’s more, would generate enough revenue in that one game to almost cover Connacht’s entire budget for the season.

Leinster coach Joe Schmidt has made just four changes from the team which beat Saracens at Wembley, with circumstances forcing three of them as Eoin O’Malley and Fergus McFadden form a new midfield. Isaac Boss rotates with former Connacht man Eoin Reddan at scrumhalf and Leo Cullen making his first start of the season in the secondrow.

Eric Elwood has been obliged to retain faith in probably the most settled if over-worked side in Europe. Unchanged from the team which beat Bayonne last week, 11 of this side have been ever present this season in the Magners League, and but for the IRFU’s Player Welfare Programme, and for injury, both Seán Cronin and John Muldoon would assuredly have fallen into that category as well.

To add grist to the mill, there are a host of players hurting from their Irish squad omission this week, such as Fionn Carr (scorer of four of Connacht’s seven tries in the League) and Frank Murphy, and Cullen, McFadden and Shane Jennings. Interestingly, all but two of each side are Irish qualified, which shows that Schmidt especially is allowing individuals to press their cases.

By rights, there should also be only one winner. But then that’s pretty much true every time, and Connacht and their fans have made the Sportsground into something of a fortress, with only Munster and Toulon beating them in their last 14 competitive games there.

CONNACHT: G Duffy; D Fanning, N Ta’auso, K Matthews, F Carr; I Keatley, F Murphy; B Wilkinson, S Cronin, J Hagan, M Swift, M McCarthy, J O’Connor, R Ofisa, J Muldoon (capt). Replacements: A Flavin, B Fa’amasuili, R Loughney, B Upton, E Taylor, C Willis, M Nikora, T Nathan.

LEINSTER: R Kearney; S Horgan, E O’Malley, F McFadden, I Nacewa; J Sexton, I Boss; C Healy, R Strauss, M Ross, L Cullen, D Toner, S O’Brien, S Jennings, J Heaslip (capt). Replacements: J Harris-Wright, H van der Merwe, S Shawe, N Hines, D Ryan, E Reddan, G D’Arcy, A Conway.

Referee: George Clancy (Ireland).

Recent meetings: (07-08) Leinster 29 Connacht 9; Connacht 10 Leinster 16; (08-09) Connacht 19 Leinster 18; Leinster 26 Connacht 18; (09-10) Leinster 17 Connacht 14; Connacht 27 Leinster 13.

Leading try scorers – Connacht: Fionn Carr 4. Leinster: Isa Nacewa 2. Leading points scorers – Connacht: Ian Keatley 78. Leinster: Isa Nacewa 54.

Betting (Paddy Powers): 19/10 Connacht, 20/1 Draw, 2/5 Leinster. Handicap odds (Connacht + 6pts) 10/11 Connacht, 20/1 Draw, 10/11 Leinster.

Forecast: Leinster to win.