A breakdown of Ireland’s 2025 energy mix illustrates the sheer dominance of fossil fuels, adding up to 83 per cent of usage. UCC energy analyst Prof Brian Ó Gallachóir, described it as “a form of madness” at a recent Energy Ireland conference.
Energy system decarbonisation is actually in train. Fossil fuels peaked in 2008 with phase-out due by 2045. Carbon emissions decreased by 28 per cent between 2005 and 2025 and Ireland will comply with 2021-2025 carbon budget limits – a remarkable outcome given economic growth has increased by a third and population by 12 per cent since 2018.
On the negative side, Ireland will miss its 2030 energy transition targets, as will most EU member states – we rank among the worst performers. Transport emissions have only reduced by 11 per cent and agriculture have increased by 1 per cent. Meanwhile, EU asset losses caused by climate change amounted to €822 billion for 1980-2024 and were more than €208 billion between 2021 and 2024.
It makes the case for greater urgency. The latest SEAI Energy Projections report highlights risk of “delayed achievement”. With full achievement of key 2030 Climate Action Plan targets impossible, “a transformative approach to delivering infrastructure is needed to recover a feasible path and mitigate future risk”. More measures are needed to meet legally binding national and EU obligations “combined with policy to meet a greater challenge by 2040”, the report adds.
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A focus on long-term policy and energy system resilience is required, including unprecedented technology shifts and robust energy sufficiency measures, it continues. “Avoiding wasteful energy use is essential to get back on track toward obligations beyond 2030, to reduce compliance and consumer costs, and to increase long-term resilience of the energy system.”
“The reality is we need all the sustainable technologies we can get, and we need them yesterday,” says Friends of the Earth head of policy Jerry MacEvilly. But important conditions are attached to this, he adds.
“Developing more renewable energy is not the same as removing fossil fuels from the system. Ireland will remain energy insecure and will continue to fall short on climate action if Government continues to disapply climate law, facilitates long-term fossil fuel infrastructure, particularly gas, and fails to put in place clear timelines for actively phasing out fossil fuels.”
MacEvilly welcomes SEAI emphasis on energy sufficiency. “This means reducing demand in the first place while improving quality of life. [It] will require the Government to introduce stronger regulation and place actual limits on unsustainable growth in energy demand,” he says.
“The energy transition must be relentlessly focused on improving the wellbeing of those who are most vulnerable. At a time of skyrocketing energy prices, driven in large part by reliance on gas, the Government must target sustainable solutions – from rooftop and home retrofits to electrified transport – towards disadvantaged communities and households most at risk.”
Yet current policy is moving in the opposite direction: “Ireland’s reputation has been severely damaged by Government policies … colossal growth in energy demand from data centres will significantly eclipse that of any other sector. This is significantly increasing fossil gas use, further driving up electricity prices for households, and undermining energy security and achievement of our EU targets.”
James Delahunt, KPMG partner and head of energy and natural resources, has charted how to bridge ambition and delivery. His key message is: “Demand is not the issue; delivery is. Capital is available; certainty is more scarce. Ireland can still deliver – but only if grid, consenting and market design move at the pace of demand.”
Domestic stability and progress are threatened by global shifts, with sustainability under fire as defence and energy security top the agenda. Meanwhile, supply disruptions due to volatile global markets put pressure on energy systems.
Growth despite the Iran conflict is still possible, Delahunt adds. Inflation has moderated even if price rises are embedded and full employment means limited additional resources for the energy sector. He says that “renewables installations to date fall far short of the requirement to meet [Climate Action Plan] targets”.
Delahunt highlights the case of onshore wind leading the charge. Wind capacity reached 5GW in 2025; “a huge milestone”. A further 2GW-plus will enter the planning system over the next 12 months but historic planning delays mean few connections during 2025 running into 2026.
Solar is set to play an equally pivotal role, while a portfolio of industrial scale biomethane plants is set to come on stream.
The bottom line is “the Irish energy system is investable,” he says. Policy support is real, with plentiful supply of capacity and a strong national balance sheet but the international picture means buildout is not without risks.
He believes 2026 marks a decisive moment in Ireland’s energy transition, when focus must turn to execution. Priorities are clear: “accelerate renewable deployment, strengthen grid, protect affordability and safeguard security of supply”.
The previous government set ambitious climate targets; perhaps too demanding in some instances, he says, but it stimulated activity. Today, it’s about wrestling with competitiveness issues that go beyond energy and its infrastructure to include FDI and broader infrastructure, while the climate issue has not gone away.
In the near term, “dispatchable gas generation will remain important to balance variable renewables and ensure reliability, even as Ireland accelerates the shift to cleaner fuels”. Regulatory certainty, timely grid access and port capacity are critical to keep timelines intact, he notes. “To oversimplify it, it all comes down to grid and planning.”
We should be looking at successfully transitioning countries, he says, such as Germany (pushing security) and Denmark (getting public buy-in). While all the narrative is around electricity and ultimately comes back to grid, transport and heat must be addressed. “There is a journey to go on and it takes time.”
Headwinds exist; suboptimal consenting timelines on planning and grid, geopolitical uncertainty and issues around public buy-in and affordability, Delahunt adds. But tailwinds include stabilised interest rates; continued demand growth and supporting policy.
Conditions are favourable as a global push to accelerate renewable-powered electrification is gaining momentum.
