Hybrid threats are expected to increase in Europe over the coming years, including during Ireland’s EU presidency, Department of Defence officials have warned.
In briefing materials prepared for newly appointed Minister for Defence Helen McEntee last month, officials noted Europe’s security and defence will likely be the “dominant context” of the Irish presidency during the second half of 2026.
They warned that the trend of hybrid activity, described as “systemic, coercive behaviour directed by a state actor and designed to damage a target”, is expected to “increase over the coming years, including during our presidency”.
While hybrid activity can take place across “all possible domains”, officials said it includes “systemic foreign interference in the information space”, including in the context of elections.
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According to the document provided under the Freedom of Information Act, portions of which are heavily redacted, it also includes sabotage, instrumentalisation of migration, cyber activity, attacks against critical infrastructure, and radio frequency interference.
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“The trend of increasing hybrid activity is expected to continue and could escalate in the event of a ceasefire and Russian reliance on a war economy model,” the document reads.
As part of ongoing preparations for Ireland’s EU presidency, officials noted that some €19 million will be spent to acquire counter unmanned aerial systems, or anti-drone technology.
Department officials said there is “sustained momentum” to enhance national and EU-level resilience to keep “critical functions operational in a crisis”.
“This focus is very relevant to the escalation in hybrid activity within member states,” officials said.
The document notes that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine “fundamentally altered” the European security landscape and resulted in a “paradigm shift” in approaches to security and defence.
It described initiatives aimed at ramping up “defence readiness” by 2030, “meaning member states are prepared for any defence-related crisis, including high-intensity warfare”.
“The overarching goal and driver of the process is enhancing capabilities in order to be able to credibly deter an attack by Russia,” the document states.
Officials said concerns about the “durability of the transatlantic security partnership” have also had a “profound impact”, with a number of member states pushing for the EU to take a stronger role on security and defence.
“Many in Brussels have doubts that the EU and its current structures could endure the chaos, instability and uncertainty resulting from a kinetic attack on a member state,” officials said.
Separately, the Minister was advised that the total strength of the Permanent Defence Forces, including Army Air Corps and Naval Service, is expected to reach 7,700 by year, up from 7,557 at the end of 2024.
“While the net increase is positive, the rate of increase is not sufficient to reach current establishment within any realistic time frame,” the notes read.
The current “establishment”, or agreed strength, is 9,739.
“Assuming that net recruitment is increased substantially further (from net increase of 140 per year to 400 net per year) current establishment will be achieved in five years approximately, by 2031.”
