Carlow and Sinn Féin could be the biggest winners in a redrawn Carlow-Kilkenny constituency

On the wall of Neighbourhood Espresso cafe in Carlow town is a piece of writing which notes the “difficult time” the county has been through and how it wants to help “bring the town back to its happy place”.

Brian O’Gorman, who opened the coffee shop in 2017, says this is a reference to the period between 2005 and 2009, when Irish Sugar, the German engineering firm Lapple and personal products company Braun all closed their operations in the area.

“It was a big hit for the town at the time,” says O’Gorman, sitting inside his cafe on a Monday morning as the town slowly emerges from its weekend slumber.

While Carlow town, which is home to almost half of the county’s population, has been boosted by the amalgamation of the former Carlow and Waterford Institutes of Technology into the southeast Technological University, O’Gorman says other issues remain.

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“There’s still lots of empty shops on each street around the town, a lot of units that have been vacant for a long time, but some industries have come back,” he says.

The Carlow-Kilkenny general election constituency will come into focus on Wednesday when a review by the Electoral Commission, setting out how the country’s electoral map could be reshaped, is published.

The Constitution states that there must be one TD for every 20,000 to 30,000 people. Carlow-Kilkenny has a population of 165,616 and is currently a five-seater. The expectation is it will have to be divided into two three-seat constituencies.

In 2020, Sinn Féin’s Kathleen Funchion comfortably topped the poll, followed by Fianna Fáil’s John McGuinness and Jennifer Murnane O’Connor (the only one of the five TDs originally from Carlow), Fine Gael’s John Paul Phelan (who has said he will not be seeking reelection) and Malcolm Noonan of the Green Party.

Carlow Chamber chief executive Brian O’Farrell, who was one of those to make a submission to the Electoral Commission, says “some people feel Carlow hasn’t had its full share of representation” because four of the five TDs elected in the constituency are from the Kilkenny side.

O’Farrell says finding housing (student accommodation in particular) remains a problem for people in Carlow along with health services and infrastructure.

John Paul Gilmore, manager of Teach Dolmain in Carlow town, says many of the students who work in the pub and restaurant over the summer struggle to find somewhere to live.

“We have one guy, who is from the Czech Republic and finished his first year in the university,” he says. “He had to move out of his previous accommodation and was going to fly home to look for new accommodation. He had booked a flight, but luckily in the end he got something.”

A little more than 35km away, Kilkenny city is bustling with activity. A number of US tourists who had travelled over for the Notre Dame v Naval Service American football clash in Dublin last weekend were visiting the local castle and taking the Smithwick’s Brewery tour.

Pat Crotty, owner of Paris Texas bar and chairman of Kilkenny Tourism, says: “I was talking to two Carlow people on the street yesterday in Kilkenny ... they couldn’t get over the number of people out here on the street on a Sunday, the whole sense of buzz and activity was on a different scale.

“I would be of the view that the closer you can get to base, in terms of where your representatives are from, the better. Of course, when they go to Dublin they should be looking after the interests of the country, rather than just looking after the parish pump.”

Locally, the feeling is that Carlow could be the “biggest winner” from the constituency being divided into two three-seat constituencies, as well as Sinn Féin.

`I personally believe dividing Carlow-Kilkenny into two would be a very positive development for Co Carlow’

Funchion, who was the only Sinn Féin candidate selected to run here in 2016 and 2020, says her understanding is that the party intends to run two candidates in the constituency at the next election. “Our plan, even if it remained a five-seater, would be to run two candidates, a Carlow-based candidate and then myself, as the Kilkenny-based candidate.”

She and McGuinness, a Fianna Fáil TD since 1997, would be regarded as likely to retain their seats in a Kilkenny three-seater with Fine Gael potentially securing the third. Many are keen to point out former minister and European commissioner Phil Hogan’s past success in the county.

There is also a belief that Fine Gael would run two candidates – one in Carlow and another in Kilkenny – in the event of a constituency split, which could see Noonan, a Minister of State, under threat. Murnane O’Connor would be regarded as a good bet to be returned to the Dáil in a new Carlow constituency, while People Before Profit councillor Adrienne Wallace is also mentioned.

Pat Deering, a former Fine Gael TD from Rathvilly, Co Carlow, who lost his seat in 2020, says getting two Carlow TDs over the line in the five-seater has long been a challenge. “Nine times out of 10, four of the five TDs are from Kilkenny,” he says. “I personally believe dividing Carlow-Kilkenny into two would be a very positive development for Co Carlow.”

Deering says he will, “in due course”, consider whether to run again. It will be all eyes will be on the Electoral Commission’s decision for Carlow-Kilkenny, and then time to discuss the matter family, friends and supporters.

Current state of play: Where Carlow-Kilkenny stands

Constituency: Carlow-Kilkenny

Current number of seats: Five

Sitting TDs: Kathleen Funchion (SF), John McGuinness (FF), Jennifer Murnane O’Connor (FF), John Paul Phelan (FG) and Malcolm Noonan (GP)

Population Census 2016: 156,164

Population Census 2022: 165,616 (+6 per cent)

Population per Dáil member 2022: 33,123

Issues on the ground: Housing, health, local services and infrastructure

Lay of the land: Carlow and Kilkenny between them have population levels that are comfortably equivalent to six Dáil seats, so the existing five-seater constituency is expected to be divided into two new three-seat constituencies.

Options: One constituency could include the entire county area of Carlow and north Kilkenny with a second covering Kilkenny city and south Kilkenny. An alternative approach might be to link Carlow with West Wicklow and Kilkenny with south Waterford.