Sinn Féin viewed as the likely winner from expected rise in Dáil numbers in reshaping of electoral map

Sinn Féin is in a “strong position” to pick up extra seats and is the party “most likely” to benefit from the potentially significant increase in Dáil numbers set to emerge from the Electoral Commission’s constituency review, political academics believe.

An Coimisiún Toghcháin, the Electoral Commission, is to deliver the findings of its highly anticipated constituency review next Wednesday, August 30th.

Due to the rise in Ireland’s population to 5.1 million, as recorded in Census 2022, the terms of the review allow the Commission to increase the number of seats in the Dáil from 160 to between 171 and 181.

There is an expectation among political commentators that the commission will settle on a number at the higher end of that range, and the scale of the likely increase in seats makes the review the most significant in decades.

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There has been fevered speculation among sitting TDs and potential candidates as to what the commission’s findings will mean for them as changes to the electoral map have the potential to make or break political careers.

Sinn Féin failed to capitalise on a rise in its support ahead of the 2020 general election as it ran too few candidates.

It is highly unlikely to make the same error at the next election when the Dáil will have more TDs that will be elected on the basis of redrawn maps and changes to the allocation of seats in different constituencies.

[ Buckle up. The general election campaign is about to begin ]

While the other main parties, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, could benefit from incumbency, helping to maintain numbers due to the expected greater number of TDs, there is a view that Sinn Féin is most likely to be the big winner from the additional Dáil seats.

‘Wind in their sails’

Dr Theresa Reidy, a senior lecturer in the department of government and politics at University College Cork, said the beneficiaries of the increased numbers would be parties that “have the wind in their sails”.

Other parties with stable or shrinking support bases “might save one or two seats that they would otherwise lose” when there are more Dáil seats, she said.

She told The Irish Times: “Sinn Féin is going into this contest with momentum and that means that if there are extra seats available, they are in a very strong position to be able to pick up those extra seats.”

She added that the extra seats could help Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael “because incumbency matters a great deal in the Irish system... if you’re already a TD and the number of TDs increases, you have a better chance of holding on.”

With the next general election not expected for at least a year, Ms Reidy said it was “very important to keep in mind” that a high proportion of Irish voters only make up their mind on who to vote for during the campaign

She said that as the election “gets closer and that’s when polls will really, really start to matter”.

Under the terms of the review set out in legislation, the commission is limited to creating three, four or five-seat constituencies and “the breaching of county boundaries shall be avoided as far as practicable”.

Allowing six-seaters could have prevented some likely breaches of county boundaries.

‘A challenge’

Not being able to create six-seat constituencies also means there is likely to be more three-seaters.

Ms Reidy says that if this happens, “that will certainly be a challenge for smaller political parties of all hues and also independents.”

David Farrell, a professor of politics at University College Dublin said the review would mean the Dáil would be “the largest it has ever been”.

He suggested the increase in Dáil seats could help smaller parties and even new entrants such as a mooted farmers’ party in some instances, as more seats increases the chances of proportionality in the House.

However, he also said the possibility that there would be more three-seat constituencies could impact on this and it was “ridiculous” that the commission had not been able to consider six-seat constituencies.

[ The biggest upheaval in the electoral system since the 1970s is coming ]

He said the problem for smaller parties on the left, such as Labour and the Social Democrats, had less to do with the boundary commission process and more to do with he fact that Sinn Féin was more likely to be “more adventurous in how many candidates they put forward and that will just swallow” the smaller parties.

On the fortunes of the larger parties, if the number of seats is increased by around 20, he said: “On balance, one would expect that of those three parties Sinn Féin would be the most likely to be beneficiaries.”

He said Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael had been in power for a long time and were “going to be on the defensive”.

Prof Farrell also referred to some Fine Gael TDs deciding to retire from politics and said this could mean the “incumbency advantage that might normally apply being less likely to apply”.