A definite calendar to restore devolved government to Northern Ireland by March 26th next year was agreed yesterday in St Andrews. It is a substantial achievement, even though its success depends on the outcome of a series of negotiations yet to come. After a hurly-burly few days, the political mood music was relatively upbeat at the end of the talks yesterday - so much so that the two governments felt able to call this the St Andrews Agreement. They deserve to be commended for steering the parties to this point.
It will now be up to the political leaders in Northern Ireland itself to translate this framework into reality. They will meet in a preparing-for-government format next week and will have to report back by November 10th on progress made. Policing and the commitment to power-sharing remain the principal issues which divide them. But some progress has been made. Sinn Féin has had to accept a separation between the issue of engagement with the Police Service of Northern Ireland and a precise timetable for the devolution of political control over security and justice. That timetable will be up to the Northern Ireland Assembly to determine. There appears to be an understanding that a Sinn Féin ardfheis will be held to endorse the PSNI move by the end of this year.
On that basis it is expected that legislation would be agreed to allow the first and deputy first ministers in a restored Executive to be nominated by the assembly on November 24th, thereby adhering to the existing deadline but acknowledging that the process will not be completed by then. Its extension to March next year will give time for further bargaining in the preparatory committee and consultation of party memberships. Among the major issues to be decided will be an electoral process to endorse the agreement reached. This could be either an election or a referendum. By March 14th a new Executive would be nominated, which would be fully operational on March 26th.
This process still leaves several hostages to fortune and potential ill-will. But with luck and growing mutual trust there is room to hope that the several stages can be overcome successfully. There are definite political incentives to do so for Sinn Féin and the Democratic Unionist Party, and as well for the Ulster Unionists and the SDLP. A rolling growth of trust has notoriously eluded them so far, but could now be within grasp.
All eyes yesterday were on the Rev Ian Paisley, leader of the DUP. Having gone into the St Andrews meeting in confrontational mode, he emerged yesterday from its concluding session with a commitment to consult his people closely and carefully and to respond honourably to those who choose the democratic road. It was an impressive statement of intent and there seems to be no reason not to accept his sincerity. Mr Gerry Adams said there is an enormous prize to be achieved if agreement can be reached. The two men have now a great opportunity and responsibility to deliver.