Tension and uncertainty have undoubtedly increased in Northern Ireland as a result of the shooting dead of a British soldier at Bessbrook, Co Armagh on Wednesday night. This most regrettable atrocity must be condemned outright at this highly sensitive and dangerous time.
The eloquent testimony of Mrs Lorraine McElroy, who yesterday described how the shot that killed Lance Bombardier Stephen Restorick just missed her, expresses exceptionally well the moral condemnation required. His father, who appealed to the loyalist paramilitaries not to retaliate in the name of the overall peace process, expressed much of what must be said about the killing politically. It is to be hoped that those - directly responsible for, and those associated with, the shooting will pay full attention to what these two victims had to say. On the assumption that the IRA was responsible, the question must be posed directly: what is its intended effect? Is it to reassure those within its ranks who support a military strategy that the campaign will be prosecuted on a genuine shoot to kill basis? If so, is it not time for those within the republican movement who favour a political path to confront the choice that faces them between unity or peace?
Politically, the consequences of this action are depressingly clear. As general elections loom, there is not only great uncertainty about the future, but a real possibility that the way could be opened for a fresh set of initiatives to resolve the conflict by inclusive talks, led by stable governments with fresh mandates on both sides of the Irish Sea. In Washington, President Clinton's administration has this week reaffirmed its readiness to become involved in a constructive fashion, continuing the commitment built up by the White House in his first term. There is no prospect for Sinn Fein to be involved without a credible ceasefire fully in place. If they cannot deliver on that, it seems likely that the negotiating train will depart without them. If this is so, and if such lethal violence persists, then a new British government would have little option but to clamp down hard on them.
A determined campaign of violence would therefore seem certain to sabotage the possibility of a political settlement by frustrating the new political openings that could flow from this transitional period. The history of Northern Ireland is full of depressing examples of intended and unintended consequences of political violence. This makes the idea of a controlled use of violence altogether unconvincing. One can only appeal to the political intelligence of the loyalist paramilitaries not to be drawn into the trap that is being laid for them by this shooting.
By the same token, it is surely long past time for the leadership of Sinn Fein to consider whether they can any longer convince their negotiating partners that they genuinely want a political settlement while they continue to be associated with a campaign of violence. They may calculate that ambivalence on this question will not lose them electoral support among their core constituency. But it deeply affects their credibility as negotiating partners. They should face up squarely to their responsibilities as a political leadership and pursue an immediate ceasefire as an absolute priority and a real opportunity for involvement in inclusive talks.