The latest state to exercise President George Bush as a possible haven for Islamic extremism is Somalia. Last week its capital Mogadishu was captured by an alliance of Islamic militias. They pushed back a group of warlords who have been backed by the United States, and have since then consolidated their victory in a state that has lacked an effective central government for 15 years. The mostly nomadic and pastoralist country of four million people also has a United Nations-endorsed transitional government, but it has been undermined by this conflict.
This outcome is seen as something of a strategic setback for American policy in their international campaign against Islamic terrorism - based on the dubious assumption that these militias are so aligned. Those with expertise in Somali affairs strongly contest that this is so. Whether the relevant lessons are learned in Washington will be an important test of its tentative turn towards a more realistic policy on radical Islamic movements. This alliance has popular support associated with efforts to provide law and order through Sharia courts, healthcare and education - as is the case with the Palestinian movement Hamas, for example.
The reported links with international al-Qaeda groups are based on intelligence reports that linked individuals were responsible for planning the bombing of the US embassy in Nairobi in 1998. These suspicions go back to the ill-fated US involvement in Somalia after President Siad Barre was overthrown in 1991, which culminated in the rapid withdrawal of US troops three years later.The fixation on counterterrorism has rebounded on US policy by bolstering those it was intended to combat and undermining the alternative transitional government. Some recognition that this was the case was visible when a State Department spokesman mentioned the possibility of co-operating with a new governing authority in Somalia if it has peaceful intent.
Somalia is not the only state where such a policy failure is on view. In Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai's administration also has limited control of a country dominated by warlords, which have been supported against the Islamic Taliban. It is now being propped by more Nato troops. The death last week of the Jordanian born al-Qaeda insurgent Abu Musab al-Zarqawi is undoubtedly a fillip for the US policy of eliminating its leadership. But it stretches credibility to assert there is a coherent international movement stretching through all these different states and regions.
The elements of a more realistic US approach recognising such differences and the pragmatic policies associated with them can be seen in its changing approach to Iran. The shift towards a readiness to negotiate directly with the Iranian government on nuclear enrichment and security, along with the European group leading these talks, is a welcome one, which has elicited a positive response so far from Tehran. The lessons arising from this change could fruitfully be applied in Somalia.