Strategy on Iraq

Events are forcing the United States to change course in Iraq, where resistance to the post-war occupation has reached much more…

Events are forcing the United States to change course in Iraq, where resistance to the post-war occupation has reached much more serious proportions. The daily toll of attacks and casualties has emboldened those responsible and sharpened criticism that the US-led occupation is adrift and incapable of resolving the problems it faces.

In response it has reportedly been decided to transfer more political power and authority to Iraqi representatives, and to accelerate their recruitment into the military and security forces.

Precisely how this is to be done will emerge in coming days and weeks. It has become clear that the Iraq Governing Council appointed by the occupation authorities is dysfunctional. In private, US officials say many of its members are more concerned with their private business dealings than with good governance, while fewer than half of them actually attend meetings.

When they do, their ideological factionalism gets in the way of decisions. In any case the council's powers are severely circumscribed by the failure to devolve sufficient authority to it. As a result progress made in restoring basic physical and human infrastructure has been obscured by the more dramatic acts of resistance and growing dissatisfaction with the occupation among ordinary Iraqis.

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That the Central Intelligence Agency's secret report on these matters was leaked this week tells a tale about disarray in the Bush administration over Iraq mirroring that in Baghdad. Reportedly the leak was engineered to ensure its message reached President Bush and was not intercepted and spun by certain of his advisers. The summit meeting with the US representative in Iraq, Mr Paul Bremer, involved all the relevant office-holders.

Their options are limited if they want to restore their political and military authority. A much more robust military response to the suicide and car bomb attacks risks strengthening the resistance, making the situation worse. Politically, the model of Afghanistan, where a smaller provisional government was appointed to run the country while a constitution was drafted, may be adopted.

There is precious little time to make such decisions, given next month's deadline on preparing an Iraqi constitution laid down by the UN. It could be too late to take the radical steps required if Iraqis are to be drafted into the military occupation. The débâcle over involving Turkish troops shows how difficult it will be to convince other states to send them without a satisfactory UN mandate, while the deaths of so many Italian troops this week has intensified calls for their withdrawal.