The IRA"s announcement that it is withdrawing its proposal to General John de Chastelain's decommissioning body, though not unexpected, is regrettable. The Secretary of State, Dr John Reid, went to painful lengths to make it clear that he suspended the political institutions with reluctance. It was brief and technical. On any test of proportionality, the IRA's response is an over-reaction.
It may also be instructive. The "process" which the IRA's proposal initiated and which was announced by the decommissioning body, had evidently not yet evolved beyond words. Verbal formulations, even if endorsed by General de Chastelain, will not enable the unionists to go back to the institutions. Nor should they be sufficient for the two governments and the other pro-Agreement parties.
Dr Reid has less than six weeks in which to make progress before he is obliged to call fresh elections. If the IRA and the decommissioning body were to be in productive dialogue over that period it is possible that the proclaimed "process" could be advanced to the point that elections might be avoided. The IRA's proposal has been withdrawn but contact has not been broken. Elections may not yet be inevitable.
Dr Reid and the Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr Cowen, meanwhile will press ahead with the other elements of what was agreed at Weston Park in July. Yesterday, Dr Reid appeared to be saying that he intends to deliver what he understands will satisfy republicans and nationalists on policing. However, he added, full implementation of these reforms must depend on the IRA fulfilling the "indispensable" requirement of decommissioning.
The arrest of three men in Colombia, at least some of them with reported IRA connections, signals the continuing involvement of the organisation in the murky world of terrorism and international crime. It remains to be clarified what precisely the men were doing but it is not suggested that they were on vacation.
Just some weeks ago, according to Garda sources, the IRA was responsible for a raid in Co Westmeath which netted more than 100 shotguns and rifles from a firearms dealer's premises. The IRA structure remains intact and its members continue to engage in actions against those whom it considers to be undesirable. Up to twenty men have been shot dead since the beginning of the ceasefire.
The IRA is not engaging in the sort of random, sectarian attacks which are being mounted by loyalist extremists. But those who would wish away the IRA's capacities are myopic. The best that can be hoped is that some progress towards disposal of its arsenals can take place within the six-week period now ahead. Elections would favour those on the extremes - Sinn FΘin and the anti-Agreement unionists. It would be a dismal prospect for those who seek to reach agreement on the middle-ground.