The First Minister will fight for his leadership of the Ulster Unionist Party by telling his critics that ditching him now would be reckless, writes Gerry Moriarty.
In the face of another implicit challenge to his leadership David Trimble was in very chipper form yesterday, according to some of his colleagues.
The North's First Minister and Ulster Unionist Party leader seems to thrive on adversity, although the constant seasonal crises can't be doing his party any good.
Peter Robinson and his fellow strategists in the DUP must also have been in cheerful mood yesterday - another Ulster Unionist upheaval, another DUP opportunity to become top of the unionist heap.
Anti-Belfast Agreement people argued that the decision to convene an Ulster Unionist Council (UUC) meeting in the next month is not yet another get-Trimble campaign, that its true purpose is to put democratic manners on Sinn Féin and the IRA.
There's some truth there but it doesn't really wash. This UUC meeting is being convened to dictate to Mr Trimble what policy he should follow on the UUP remaining in the Executive with Sinn Féin.
Agreement sceptics such as MPs Mr David Burnside and Mr Jeffrey Donaldson made that clear yesterday. It was up to unionists to take action against Sinn Féin because Mr Tony Blair wasn't prepared to impose sanctions, said Mr Donaldson.
Mr Burnside said: "We have no confidence in the government. Ulster Unionists must act, we must take the initiative and we will do so at the Ulster Unionist Council." In other words the No wing of the party is saying it does not trust the leader's policies. And if it does not trust his policies, how can it trust him? Ergo, this is another get-Trimble campaign - not that many on the anti-agreement side will admit this.
When the 800 or so delegates in the UUC gather in the Waterfront Hall or some other venue on September 14th or 21st expect former Fine Gael leader Michael Noonan to get a mention.
The point will be made by the Trimble camp that electorally it is reckless to chuck leaders towards the end of a government run: just look what happened to Fine Gael in the Republic's general election after John Bruton was usurped by Mr Noonan.
"Whether you like David Trimble or don't like him, to change leadership now is to just panic," said one Trimbleite.
Coleraine MLA David McClarty put it stronger yesterday on BBC. He thought it was tactical "madness" to call a meeting for "more unionist blood-letting" at a time when the party should be presenting a united front for next May's Assembly elections.
Mr McClarty was happy to back his leader. But if Mr Trimble is to emerge safely from this threat he will require bigger names in the party to rally to his cause. Senior people in the Yes camp were keeping their heads down yesterday. But it's early days yet.
Mr Donaldson and Mr Burnside were happy to be quoted yesterday, but they weren't eager to be seen taking ownership of this initiative. Up to last night there was no obvious spokesperson for the 60 Ulster Unionists who are calling this meeting.
"Who is doing the running here? There is something sinister going on," said one of the leadership team. "Bitter Orange blood runs thick."
Ms Arlene Foster would resent and reject any such depiction of her reason for her signature. She says she isn't a spokeswoman for the group but agrees that the UUC must insist on some action against Sinn Féin. "That was always Plan B," she said.
She reflected a general unionist view that spans both sides of the party. "If we go into the Assembly election on the current policy of being in government with Sinn Féin/IRA and they are doing all that they are doing - and I don't need to rehearse what that is - then we are going to get annihilated."
She, and others like her, are conscious that in the coming months the headlines will be dominated by Colombia and Castlereagh, not to mention a possible pending court case over an alleged up-dated IRA hit list of prominent people.
If the IRA can observe the Richard Haass formula from now on, that might help Mr Trimble marginally. That formula requires republicans drawing a line under Colombia and Castlereagh and ensuring the IRA in future leaves politics to politicians.
One of Mr Trimble's supporters applying the only-show-in-town argument said: "You either sign up for devolution with Sinn Féin, or you sign off on devolution, because you won't have devolution without Sinn Féin. Better to work the agreement and bring Sinn Féin deeper into the process." And that certainly is the view of the British and Irish governments. They will be very reluctant to do anything to lever Martin McGuinness and Bairbre de Brún out of the Executive, as the No camp accepts.
A confidant of the First Minister says he "has a number of cards up his sleeve on how he will meet this challenge". And that could involve some hard-balling against Sinn Féin come the UUC meeting to try to finesse his No wing.
Mr Trimble may be in confident form but he knows that nothing can be taken for granted. Not only must he see off the challenge from party dissidents but he must ensure that the grandees in the UUP, witnessing the constant damage to the party, don't form the opinion he should cry surrender in this wearying battle of attrition. Yesterday we only heard the opening salvos in this contest.
Gerry Moriarty is Northern Editor of The Irish Times