"The Iraq conflict has become the cause célèbre for jihadists, breeding a deep resentment of US involvement in the Muslim world and cultivating supporters for the global jihadist movement." This extraordinarily candid assessment of the Iraq war contained in the US National Intelligence Estimate cuts right across the case made for it by the Bush administration. The dilemma the administration faces in deciding whether to withdraw is well captured in another observation about Iraq: "Perceived jihadist success there would inspire more fighters to continue the struggle elsewhere."
President Bush's decision to release selected extracts from the estimate after it was leaked to US media was motivated to ensure the second aspect receives as much attention as the first. Admitting that the occupation creates terrorism has to be balanced against the likelihood that it would be further bolstered by a rapid withdrawal. There can be no denying that this story gains wings precisely because withdrawal is now coming into the political mainstream. Opinion polls in the US and Britain show a growing disenchantment with the war among its erstwhile supporters. This feeling will be reinforced by intelligence estimates distilled from 16 US agencies.
Another poll published this week, of Iraqi voters by the University of Maryland, found an overwhelming majority believes the US military presence in Iraq is provoking more conflict than it is preventing. There is growing confidence in the Iraqi army, and if the US made a commitment to withdraw, a majority believes this would strengthen the Iraqi government. The poll reports that 37 per cent of Iraqis believe US troops should be gone within six months, 34 per cent within a year, 20 per cent within two years, with only 9 per cent saying they should stay until the security situation improves.
While grave political decisions of this kind cannot be determined by opinion polling, these findings certainly demonstrate that the situation in Iraq has reached a point where the issue of withdrawal must be faced squarely. There is a dramatic coincidence between US intelligence assessments and Iraqi opinion that the occupation itself causes terrorism and encourages jihadism. Withdrawing troops would be the best means of reducing the level of both of them.
Those who resist this conclusion fail to understand that the decision to withdraw would itself generate political good will for the Iraqi authorities and reduce the appeal of those involved in violent resistance. Put differently, such a courageous decision would itself become part of the political solution to this terrible conflict.