North/South statistical profile has much to teach us

The recent joint publication by the Statistical Offices of North and South of North and South: A Statistical Profile (Price IR…

The recent joint publication by the Statistical Offices of North and South of North and South: A Statistical Profile (Price IR£18) is one of the first positive fruits of the Belfast Agreement. True, the data are somewhat limited because of differences between the statistical methods employed in the United Kingdom and in our State. This problem has led, for instance, to the absence of any comparative data on crime.

Nevertheless this report is welcome as the first official presentation of comparative North/South data, although such data has emerged from other sources at various times since I undertook the first such comparison in 1956. Reading through this volume, one is often struck by the similarities between North and South, and in many cases also by the differences between both parts of Ireland and other EU States. This is particularly true of the demographic data. Thus in both parts of the island the proportion of children under 15 in 1997 was identical - 23.5 per cent. Nowhere else in the EU did this figure reach 20 per cent, and the average for the union is 17.3 per cent, more than one-quarter below the figure for both parts of our island.

There is, however, some difference between North and South on the proportion of people aged 65 and over, i.e., 12.3 per cent in the North, but only 10.5 per cent in the South. However, in the rest of the EU the proportion of older people in 1997 averaged almost 16 per cent. Thus, Ireland, North and South, is by far the youngest country in the EU.

Birth, marriage and death rates in the two parts of Ireland have been broadly similar until recently, although the proportion of births to older mothers has been consistently much higher here than in the North: 55 per cent of births here are now to mothers aged 30 and over, as against 45 per cent in Northern Ireland.

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The North has not, however, experienced the recovery in the birth and marriage rates that has been such a striking feature here in the second half of the 1990s. This has recently brought our marriage rate above that of Northern Ireland for the first time in recorded history. Unhappily, our non-marital birth rate, which in the past was always lower, has recently caught up with the North's rate.

The higher death rate in Northern Ireland seems simply to reflect an older population. In particular, the much higher female death rate in the North reflects the fact that its proportion of older women is 30 per cent higher than here.

There are some significant differences between causes of death in Northern Ireland and the Republic. While there is remarkable consistency between the proportion of deaths of both sexes from circulatory diseases North and South, deaths from respiratory diseases is consistently at least one-fifth higher in the North for both sexes. The proportion of deaths from cancer is higher for men in Northern Ireland, but lower for women.

There are two particularly disturbing features of these comparative death figures. First, the proportion of deaths from road accidents here is at least half as great again as in the North - with, significantly, almost three times as many men as women in both areas dying in this way.

And, second, although in 1990 the recorded suicide rate was the same in both parts of the island, today the rate here is about 50 per cent higher for both sexes. This change in the relationship between suicide rates North and South may, of course, have reflected an increase in openness on this issue in our State during the past decade if, as is suspected, such deaths were earlier suppressed.

But whether the higher suicide rate here is a new development, or an older one that has only been fully revealed, we must ask why should young people in this part of Ireland be so much more prone to killing themselves than young people in Northern Ireland? For it is younger people who are mainly affected: the suicide rate is highest among those in their 20s, and to a lesser extent among those in their 30s.

This joint North/South report goes on to show that households tend to be smaller in the North, where, moreover, almost three times as many live in rented local authority dwellings.

What of the relative size of our two economies? As presented in this volume the data on GDP in the two areas are not comparable, because the Northern Ireland national accounts data is presented in a new standardised form sought by the European Commission - one we have yet to adopt.

However, some data on the output of different sectors of our economy are available for the Republic in this form. This enables a comparison to be made of our two economies up to the year 1997.

Adjusted for the exchange rate and price differences, these data suggest that, while in the early 1950s the output of the Northern economy accounted for almost 40 per cent of the island's output, by 1997 it was producing barely 25 per cent. In view of developments since 1997, its share may now be down to about 23 per cent.

These are astonishing changes over the past half-century. And, given that just one third of all those at work in the island are in the North, these figures are very low indeed, and show no signs of a halt to this relative decline. The need for a major revival of the Northern economy is urgent.

The only sectors in which output in Northern Ireland in 1997 was proportionate to the size of its population and labour force were public administration, health, education - all part of the public sector - as well as energy. The fact is the private sector in the North is now running far behind that of the Republic.

Because of the impact of transfers from the United Kingdom, the difference in living standards between North and South is, of course, much less than in the case of output. Whereas in 1997 output per head was more than a quarter lower in Northern Ireland, living standards there were only about one-eighth lower than here. Since then the divergence between the two areas has continued to widen.

There is much else of interest in this volume, the contents of which should alert people on both side of the Border to weaknesses and deficiencies that could usefully be tackled by drawing on the experience of the neighbouring area.

gfitzgerald@irish-times.ie