Newton Emerson: Nationalist timeframe for unity does not stack up

Chances of united Ireland in next decade are close to zero

Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald said Ireland was living in the ‘dying days of partition’. Photograph: Alan Betson

Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald said Ireland was living in the ‘dying days of partition’. Photograph: Alan Betson

Ireland is living in the “dying days of partition” and the there will be a Border poll within 10 years, Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald told an audience in New York last week.

This is a mainstream view in nationalism and beyond. Even Fine Gael’s youth wing is writing a position paper on a united Ireland “in the coming years”, completing a consensus from West Brit to West Belfast.

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