Before setting the scene, it is relevant to comment on John Bruton's speech at the conclusion of the debate and vote of the Fine Gael parliamentary party meeting on the no-confidence motion on his leadership.
It was impressive and dignified, and in being the first to express support for the new leader, he may have set in motion the closing of ranks, which will be of considerable importance if the party, in the words of the joint proposers, is to have a new start.
The outlook facing the new leader is exceedingly formidable and, in addition to having to hit the ground running, he will have numerous demanding sub-agendas to consider and dispose of, if the party is to meet its stated objective of leading a new coalition government in the coming 29th Dail.
There are many factors in the background, few of which are favourable towards Fine Gael, and indeed some could be seen as ominous. My submissions are based on analysis of general election behaviour since the current 166-seat Dail was established before the 1981 election, and also on material from MRBI files. Some have been mentioned in passing in recent Irish Times/MRBI opinion polls.
Over the seven general elections from 1981 to 1997 (Table A), Fine Gael has lost nine percentage points in first-preference votes. That over the same period Fianna Fail has lost six percentage points does not really help the main opposition party, since the primary current objective must be to improve on its 54 seats of 1997.
If the circumstances are right, that is, if the new administration impresses and has developed an effective organisation and image structure when the election is called, then this objective could be met.
However, this achievement would employ a higher volume of first-preference votes than the 28 per cent obtained in 1987, since on that occasion (Table B) the party's ratio of seats to votes at 100:116 was its highest in this 166-seat Dail.
But one of the ominous signs is that on that occasion Fianna Fail also obtained its highest ratio 100:118 (Table B), and the party's first-preference level of 39 per cent meant that another coalition rather than the elusive overall majority was the outcome.
There is also another factor to be considered. In 1981, 8 per cent of first-preference votes were held by candidates other than those in Fianna Fail, Fine Gael and Labour, and in the 1997 election this had risen to 23 per cent (Table A).
They were taken by the PDs with 5 per cent, Democratic Left with 3 per cent, Sinn Fein with 3 per cent, the Green Party with 3 per cent and others 9 per cent. The PDs, with the additional support of four independents, formed the Fianna Fail-led Government.
Fine Gael is being squeezed on both sides, and unless it actively targets Fianna Fail, and succeeds as it did in the new Mayo five-seater in 1997, the only other option would be to attempt to swim against the tide of support for the smaller parties and independents.
Last week's Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll showed that this composite element has for the moment at least consolidated its support at 24 per cent, with the three small parties each showing a 1 per cent increase. Collectively, this in time could turn out to be significant. And there is yet another factor.
Between the 1981 and 1997 elections, Labour held its first-preference vote at 10 per cent (in fact it increased it by 0.51 per cent) and in turn increased its Dail representation from 15 to 17, the only party to do so. Its positioning at 15 per cent in last week's MRBI opinion poll would, on the basis of its average seat-to-vote ratio over the seven elections from 1981 to 1997, yield 25 Dail seats, a tidy bargaining potential.
Fine Gael's 20 per cent in the same poll, again based on its average seat-to-vote ratio, would return a paltry 38 seats. This would be catastrophic. However, it should be remembered that in three recent general election campaigns (1987, 1989 and 1997) the final MRBI opinion poll slightly understated the Fine Gael share of the first-preference vote.
Because Fianna Fail and Fine Gael nominate an average of almost three candidates in each constituency (FF 2.73 and FG 2.20 in 1997), each is in a position to maximise its ratio of seats to votes, which for these two parties is what the election is all about.
Table B shows the success rate of the two parties on this criterion. Not surprisingly their performance in this respect is better than the Labour Party's, which nominated just 43 candidates in the 41 constituencies, and had therefore of necessity to look beyond the party for many of its transfers. (Except in 1992, when 23 of the successful candidates were elected on the first count.)
There is a glimmer of light here for Fine Gael. Although Fianna Fail had a slightly higher ratio of seats to votes in 1997, Fine Gael has a higher overall ratio over the seven elections (Table B).
The potential to convert to seats is there, but the first-preference squeeze must be recognised and acted upon. Back to 1997 for a moment. Both parties have claimed that the high return of seats was based on good vote management; this may be true to some extent, but one of the primary factors was that 484 candidates were nominated, the highest in the history of this 166-seat Dail, many of whom were independents and many of whose transfers went back to the two parties.
The depth of the downturn of 9 percentage points of first-preference votes for Fine Gael from 1981 to 1997 is clearly identified when analysed by demographics. The party vote is down 14 per cent in Dublin and in urban areas generally.
It is down in all age groups up to 64: 22 per cent in the 25-34 age group and 13 per cent among those aged under 24; 11 per cent among working electors and 10 per cent among the middle class, and marginally more among females (11 per cent) than males (9 per cent).
However, the traditional farming support has held up over the period at 28 per cent. (On the other hand, Fianna Fail is down by 5 to 6 per cent in Dublin and in each province, in urban areas and among middle-class voters.) The trend for Fine Gael is very marked: the high 20s of the 1980s and 1990s has replaced the high 30s of 1981 and 1982.
In my commentary on the Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll in June 2000, I noted: "Irish society today, the product of the Celtic Tiger economy, is now less accountable and in many respects less caring than was the case even half a generation ago.
"It is also a place where some values, including the fulfilment of our civic duty, have deteriorated to the extent that, in the last general election, 34 per cent of the electorate did not bother to turn out to vote."
This means that, except for those who are heavily committed to the various parties, many have no interest in politics or politicians and see the political establishment as irrelevant. A further point to note is that electors who voted for the first time in the 1987 election saw a Fianna Fail-led government as the outcome in 1987, 1989, 1992 and 1997, so many feel that a vote for change no longer counts.
In last week's opinion poll, 46 per cent agreed that many do not vote because the country is doing well, and it does not matter who is in government. This attitude on the part of many electors raises the stakes considerably for all politicians and particularly for the new Fine Gael leader, who from the outset will be endeavouring to generate enthusiasm and interest outside the confines of the committed party supporter.
With the Government's and Taoiseach's recent satisfaction ratings considerably above the average of the past 10 years (Table D) due to the very favourable reaction to the Budget, and Bertie Ahern's personal impact among supporters of all parties, it is not a good time to be in opposition.
Jack Jones is chairman of the Market Research Bureau of Ireland Ltd