Lisbon gives chance to energise SF

ANALYSIS: Consolidation must now be key objective, after dismal election, writes Mark Hennessy

ANALYSIS:Consolidation must now be key objective, after dismal election, writes Mark Hennessy

LAST DECEMBER, Sinn Féin gathered in Griffith College at the end of six months of self-analysis about what went wrong in election 2007. Sitting in their seats, the delegates then looked weary, exhausted by the seemingly endless grind of politics, and, perhaps, also by a lack of hope.

Last weekend, the colour had come back into the cheeks of the patient, who was, it could be said, sitting up and taking some hot drinks.

However, the danger of a relapse remains.

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Sinn Féin has a target in view to energise its support base, and to spread its wares before a wider electorate: the Lisbon Treaty debate.

Significant work has been done, and continues to be done, to ensure that all of its members - down to the grassroots - are singing off the same hymn sheet at public debates in the months to come.

Interestingly, Sinn Féin may focus less on the consequences for Ireland's neutrality from the passage of the treaty than it has done before - partly because of a realisation that Sinn Féin is offering own goals to opponents at public debates if it goes on too long about militarisation, and partly because there are others in the "No" camp who are more fixated on this issue.

Instead, it will concentrate more on Ireland's future influence at the EU table, highlighting the voting weight changes, and arguing that Ireland's vote at the EU table will be significantly reduced if Lisbon is won.

Indeed, the element of Gerry Adams' speech - and parts of it were, as a piece of rhetoric, dire - that worked best on Saturday covered Lisbon.

The Adams message to the public to vote No was simple and clear and highlighted, if nothing else, the fact that the Yes camp has so failed to do the same in the opposite corner.

So far, Sinn Féin has performed well partly because of the reorganisation of the party last year led by Belfast-based Declan Kearney.

In effect, it has put a middle-management tier into the party, improving co-ordination and curbing local organisations' tendencies to go off on their own, duplicating work everywhere.

Given the presence of every other major political party on the Yes side, Sinn Féin has a major opportunity to brand itself with the public in the months ahead, if it does it right, and even if the No camp loses.

In the months after the election, Sinn Féin members privately acknowledged that Mr Adams's performance was one of the reasons why the party did so badly last year.

Now, they have returned - in public anyway - to hedgehog mode. Adams was great; there is nothing wrong with their policies. They just got squeezed between the bigger parties.

No matter how many times they argue otherwise, this is simply not the case: Adams was dreadful - twice - during the campaign, and they do have policies to address.

Clearly, Adams himself realises that he has to do more to be in tune with the mood of the Republic, judging by the detailed approach he adopted to several issues of concern in his Saturday speech, and by his acceptance that he was partly to blame on TV last evening.

One of the issues is tax. Sinn Féin culled proposals last year to increase corporation tax and raise income tax rates for those earning above €100,000, fearful that a reputation for high taxes would frighten off voters who would never have to pay them, but who get nervous when they hear anybody talking about higher taxes.

This problem still remains - though the open disagreements that were evident on Saturday were signs of healthy division rather than disunity - that there is a wing in the party who are still chasing after the pure flame of ideology.

Sinn Féin is unapologetic about the need to raise more taxes to provide first-class public services, but, as Gerry Adams says, "neither are we a high-tax party. We are a fair-tax party".

The difficulty for Sinn Féin in coming years is to be able to engineer a policy that raises significant exchequer revenues and remains economically credible, while not frightening off those who would not lose out by its introduction.

In addition, a heavily northern-dominated Sinn Féin must develop a real southern leadership, one that is accepted as such by voters - not just some token extra profile in between Martin and Gerry's speeches.

In truth, the existence of the problem is accepted, but it is not easy for them to do much about it - particularly given the fact that the party lost one TD, elected no new ones, and no longer qualifies for the Dáil's prime speaking slots.

Nevertheless, the Lisbon Treaty referendum offers a real chance to remedy some of these deficiencies and not just to depend unreasonably on Dublin MEP, Mary Lou McDonald, who has performed well in debates so far.

Once Lisbon is out of the way, Sinn Féin will have to turn its attention entirely onto the local and European Parliament elections in mid-2009, and, here, the situation is fraught with risk.

McDonald's re-election task will be complicated by the fact that the Dublin European Parliament constituency will fall from a four-seater to a three-seater, leaving her most in danger of being a casualty, unless there is a notable swing away from the bigger parties.

However, the future for Sinn Féin's councillors is even more significant, since so much of the party's focus is now on building ward by ward.

In 2004, the party had the wind behind it, winning an extra 33 seats to bring its tally to 54. Since then six have resigned, only one because of the dual mandate, and there are fears within the party that a repeat of 2004 - where the party succeeded by getting extraordinary turnout figures in some areas - will be difficult to repeat.

Sinn Féin's dream of a united Ireland by 2016, and with it in charge, has suffered more than a few knocks, which explains why the party has set up a committee to look at the issue - if only to act as a distraction. For now the objective must be consolidation.