There has been a significant shift in attitudes towards the composition of the next government with a majority now in favour of the formation of a Fine Gael/Labour Party/Green Party coalition, according to the latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll. But while such an outcome is the preferred choice of voters, particularly in Dublin, a majority still believes that Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats will be re-elected in the next election.
The contrast between the desire and expectation of voters reflects the volatility of the political situation and the amount of work that Fine Gael and the Labour Party have to do to convince the electorate they can topple the present government. In spite of that, Enda Kenny and Pat Rabbitte will take comfort from the fact that - compared to this time last year when the public also wanted change - voters now look to them as a real alternative.
The need for Fine Gael and the Labour Party to develop and promulgate distinct and attractive policies for government is emphasised by the finding that four out of 10 voters believe the outcome of the general election will make no difference to the way the country is being run, while one in three feels a change of coalition would only have a minor impact. On a personal level, more than half of the electorate believe a change of government would have no direct effect on the quality of their lives.
Differences between the parties have become blurred in recent years because of their broad support for social partnership arrangements and more equitable economic policies. Because of that, the outcome of the election is likely to be decided on the perceived competence of the parties to manage the economy and to develop public services.
In that regard, improvements in the quality of health care will be a defining challenge for the present Government - and particularly for the Tánaiste and Minister for Health, Mary Harney - followed by issues of transport and education. These matters have been identified as priorities by 60 per cent of the electorate in influencing their voting intentions. One in eight voters nominated crime as a deciding factor, with slightly fewer mentioning management of the economy, public waste and taxation as their priorities.
With up to a year remaining until the election is called, party strategists will now attempt to build on their strengths. The Government parties are already preparing a five-year national development plan, for publication next January, while maturing SSIA savings accounts and a generous December budget are expected to lift their public satisfaction ratings. In such circumstances, they are likely to control the economic high ground in an election campaign and Fine Gael and the Labour Party have the difficult task of producing a range of social policies that not only attract voters but are seen to be reasonable, relevant and affordable.