When Nato ministers met yesterday in Seville they heard an appeal from the United States to commit yet more forces to Afghanistan ahead of an expected Taliban offensive in the spring. In coming months the US and Britain plan to add another 3,000 troops to the 33,000-strong UN-mandated, Nato-run International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), and desperately need further reinforcement. In recent days, provoking domestic controversy, Germany has committed some Tornado jets, but Spain, the Netherlands, France, Italy and Turkey have all ruled out reinforcements, pleading overstretch.
This spring is likely to be bloody. The violence is escalating and some suggest the increase in troop numbers may be too little, too late. The first nine months of 2006 saw 3,700 military and civilian deaths and in the full year there were 139 suicide attacks, up from 27 in 2005; roadside bombings doubled; ambushes went up 50 per cent to 4,500. Although the brunt of the fighting is meant to be borne by the undermanned 40,000-strong Afghan army, the truth is it depends hugely on ISAF.
Nato and US forces have also been heavily criticised for civilian deaths, mainly from air raids, because they cannot always tell friend from foe. "The cruelty is too much," president Hamid Karzai declared in December. In tears, Mr Karzai said that the coalition forces are "killing our children. We can't prevent the terrorists from coming from Pakistan, we can't stop the coalition from bombing the terrorists, and our children are dying because of this."
The Taliban are effectively exploiting tribal Pashtun dissatisfaction with Kabul, over what some see as the favouritism Karzai has shown to higher-status tribes such as his own Durranis. But the Taliban's growing strength also reflects both the support it is getting from Pakistan and Pashtun anger over the civilian casualties resulting from the indiscriminate use of US air power.
A better political strategy is needed to divide Pashtun tribal leaders from the Taliban, as the British have attempted successfully in one southern district of Helmand province through direct local talks on a ceasefire. And the US must apply more pressure on Islamabad by making economic and military aid conditional on meaningful measures to curb Taliban activity over the border.
The military challenges are compounded by serious failures to address political and social problems. Poppy cultivation was up 59 per cent last year. The new police force is riddled with corruption. There are huge questions over the government's ability to use the $10 billion in international funds pledged to development: only 60 per cent of available funds were used this year. The executive doesn't speak to the parliament. There are suspected war criminals in the cabinet.
Afghanistan still desperately needs the military help of the international community, but, just as much, it needs its help to relaunch and reframe the compact agreed last year with a more realistic road map for state-building.