A penny-pinching approach or prevarication by the Department of Health in securing an adequate supply of anti-viral drugs could have extremely serious consequences for society when a flu pandemic affects this country.
As our Medical Correspondent, Dr Muiris Houston, has reported , emergency stocks of the drug Tamiflu, purchased by the Department, are only sufficient to treat 45,000 adults should a new and virulent strain of flu emerge from south-east Asia.
Experts are now agreed it is only a matter of time before such a pandemic, with high mortality rates, spreads across the world. On average, a flu pandemic occurs every 25 years, and it is now 32 years since the last major outbreak. The virus which causes the flu mutates rapidly. And, while existing flu vaccines may offer some limited protection, a delay of up to six months is expected before a specific vaccine can be produced to deal with the mutated virus. At that stage, demand will almost certainly exceed supply, causing further hold-ups in the availability of the vaccine.
Three years ago, an expert group at the Department of Health considered what should be done in the event of a flu pandemic and issued recommendations. That report is now being updated. In spite of urgings by the expert group that a stockpile of anti-viral drugs be established as a first line of defence - pending the availability of a new flu vaccine - not enough has been done. Given that a quarter of a million people work in essential services, apart altogether from those citizens regarded as being at high risk, an anti-viral drug supply capable of treating 45,000 people is seriously inadequate.
It would be easy to be alarmist about this threat, but that is not the case here. Concern has already been expressed by the expert group about the vulnerability of citizens and society in the event of a pandemic. It posited widespread disruption and a sudden global economic and health crisis. Death rates could exceed either of the last two World Wars. The situation is particularly threatening here because anti-viral drugs are not manufactured in this State. And the chances of securing an adequate supply in the aftermath of an outbreak would be remote.
There are cost implications. The relevant drugs have a shelf-life of only five years. And while a decision in principle has been taken to buy further stocks, negotiations are only now getting under way with a foreign pharmaceutical company.
Our preparations for a flu pandemic are lagging behind other developed countries. Greater urgency is required. We cannot afford to get this wrong.