INSIDE POLITICS:There is a strong case that the best time for FF and the Greens to go to the country would be towards the end of this year, writes STEPHEN COLLINS.
SURVIVING THE motion of confidence prompted by its drubbing in the recent elections was the easy part for the Coalition.
Agreeing a budget in the autumn and then getting it approved by the Dáil will be a much stiffer test for Fianna Fáil and the Greens.
The Fine Gael decision to follow up its election triumph with a motion of no-confidence in the Government came in for some criticism in Leinster House on the basis that it forced the Coalition parties to stick together and stifled any potential outbreak of internal dissent in Fianna Fáil.
However, it is hard to see what other option the main Opposition party had in the circumstances. The ritual of politics demanded that it bring the implications of the election result on to the floor of the Dáil and force all TDs to vote for or against the continuation of the Government.
After the vote one senior Government figure had a wry take on the Fine Gael move.
“If you were Machiavellian you could say that Fine Gael put down the no-confidence motion to make sure we would stick together for another while because they certainly don’t want to take power now and be lumbered with having to bring in the next budget.”
There is certainly a grain of truth in the notion that the last thing Fine Gael and Labour want is an immediate election.
Strategists in both parties would much prefer to see Fianna Fáil and the Greens introducing the budget for next year because it will have to contain another massive €5 billion savings package on top of the pain already inflicted.
An election some time next year when Fianna Fáil and the Greens have nailed their colours to the mast, and have suffered an even further drop in popularity, would be ideal as far as the Opposition is concerned.
Thoughts of the next election are already provoking terror in the ranks of Fianna Fáil. Next year would probably be the worst possible time, and party TDs are hoping that the evil day can be put off for as long as possible. Hence the Taoiseach’s reassurance to his parliamentary party that the coalition will serve out the rest of the Dáil term until 2012.
The problem about attempting to stick it out for another three years is that both Government parties could face not just a rout but near total destruction if the Coalition actually does what is required to restore order to the public finances.
There is a strong case to be made that the best time for Fianna Fáil and the Green Party to go to the country would be towards the end of this year before any budget is announced.
That would allow the Government to force the Opposition parties into a debate on budgetary strategy and their competence to govern. The outcome of such an election might not be as predictable as many commentators think.
Fianna Fáil would in all likelihood lose power but the party might be able to salvage a decent result and then try and rebuild in opposition.
The fate of the Greens is another matter but the party’s only chance of survival as a force in the Dáil may be to fight on an issue of its own choosing, rather than sharing responsibility for the Government’s record with Fianna Fáil.
The review of the programme for government over the summer should provide an opportunity for the two parties to look coldly at the options. There is a growing realisation in both that an autumn pre-budget election would be a far better option than going to the country next year after a Dáil defeat on an issue arising from a hair-shirt budget. Fianna Fáil and the Greens will have to decide not only whether they can agree a budget between them but whether they can carry it through the Dáil and survive for a couple of years. If not they may opt for an election sooner rather than later.
In his post-election pep talk to his TDs and Senators on Tuesday, Brian Cowen announced that he would like to rebuild the party organisation as Seán Lemass and Jack Lynch did in years gone by. The problem is that unlike 1948 or 1973, when the previous revamps took place, Fianna Fáil is still in power and facing the prospect of making deeply unpopular decisions. Building a vibrant, campaigning party is hardly feasible in the circumstances.
A more immediate concern is that the party is facing a campaign in just a few months for the second referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. It is hard to see how party members will have the energy to drag themselves back out on to the doorsteps for a concerted campaign on what is a vital issue for the country.
The role of the Opposition in that referendum will be vital. One of the reasons for the first Lisbon disaster was the squabbling that went on between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael about which party was, or was not, pulling its weight in that campaign. Next time around both will have to suppress their competitive edge and convince people of the importance of voting Yes.
Having become the biggest party in the State for the first time there is now a particular onus on Fine Gael and its leader, Enda Kenny, to provide positive leadership in the referendum campaign to counteract the unpopularity of the Government.
By autumn, if Lisbon is ratified and the Nama legislation is in place, two critical stepping stones on the road to economic recovery will have been put in place.
All attention will then be on the budget and that is the issue that will determine the course of political life over the next couple of years.