Ukraine is at risk of losing out following the joint US-Israeli attack on Iran. Over the past few days its president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has gone into diplomatic overdrive with Nato and EU member states to try to ensure that hostilities in the Middle East do not entirely shift the focus from what is happening in his country.
Zelenskiy has reason to fear. Donald Trump, the US president, has lifted sanctions on the sale of Russian oil and gas in an attempt to calm energy prices. This will provide the Russian exchequer with much-needed revenues to fund the war, at a time when the economy was flagging amid the strain of existing sanctions.
Meanwhile, Viktor Orban, the Hungarian prime minister, after previously agreeing, has subsequently vetoed a crucial €90 billion EU financial lifeline to Ukraine. It remains to be seen if EU leaders can now find a way forward.
EU funding for a pipeline repair in Ukraine which would allow Russian oil to flow to Hungary and Slovakia is seen as an effort to get Orban on board. But ahead of elections next month, the reaction of the Hungarian leader is unclear.
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The stand-off between Trump and Nato may further complicate Ukraine’s efforts to fend off Russian aggression. During a press briefing at the White House to mark the visit by the Taoiseach, Trump repeatedly questioned why the US should provide any further support for Ukraine when Nato and EU member states refuse to support his campaign against Iran.
The war between Ukraine and Russia is now entering its fifth year and, despite recent diplomatic initiatives, there is no credible peace plan in sight. However, the EU, UK and Nato allies must not compromise on their support for Ukraine.
EU leaders will discuss the issue of the loan today and no doubt also Trump’s position. The immediate issue facing them is to find a way to free the vital funding for Ukraine, which had appeared to be on the way last December. Failing to do so would send a very bad signal to Kyiv – and would be a cause for celebration in Moscow.
