There was a definite lilt in the step of delegates to Welsh nationalist party Plaid Cymru’s conference this week. For the first time in its 100-year history it was, it said, preparing for power.
Polls suggest there is a real opportunity in next May’s regional elections to displace Labour and head the Welsh government. The prospect reflects a real shift in Welsh politics, one that could also play significantly into the unsteady dynamics of the United Kingdom.
Although the party will not achieve an overall majority, polls put it on 30 per cent of the vote, ahead of Reform UK on 29 per cent, with Labour, dominant in Welsh politics for so long, trailing on 14 per cent.
An early test will be next week’s Caerphilly Senedd by-election. The town has voted Labour in every Westminster and Senedd election for a century. While the party won the seat in 2021 with a majority of 5,000 over Plaid, who were just ahead of the Conservatives, the electoral landscape is now totally transformed. Polls suggest the contest now is between Plaid and Reform, which is marginally ahead, with Labour out of the reckoning entirely.
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Although Reform is polling well, it may be hit by the recent conviction of its former Welsh leader, Nathan Gill, for taking cash from Moscow for making pro-Russian public statements. He is no longer a member of the party, which rapidly distanced itself from him, but his shadow hangs over the campaign.
Aware that it has much work to do to convince voters about the case for independence, Plaid will focus its campaigning efforts on economic issues and particularly on its flagship policy to give 30 hours of free childcare to all children from nine months to the age of four.
Unlike the Scottish National Party, which is determined to make the next Scottish Parliament elections all about independence, Plaid has promised not to push the issue until its second term. That reflects the reality that independence remains a minority aspiration among Welsh voters.
