Still insisting that the Ukraine war is just a “special military exercise”, Vladimir Putin’s generals are now couching the retreat from Kherson simply as a positive redeployment to more secure defensive positions. But retreat it is.
Verbal gymnastics notwithstanding, the reported hoisting of a Ukrainian flag over the city hall on Friday by partisans and the blowing of bridges on the wide Dnipro river by retreating Russians are testimony to Ukraine’s biggest military achievement of the war. It is both a politically symbolic landmark moment and strategic game-changer that has the potential to rewrite the military agenda for both sides as the conflict heads into winter.
The only provincial capital (population 300,000) to fall to Russia – which was then formally annexed and declared a Russian city “forever” by the hoardings on its outskirts – Kherson’s retaking will provide an enormous morale lift for Ukraine. It is already causing political problems for Putin – the blinkers appear to be coming off in Moscow. A recent poll by the respected Levada Centre found that while 44 per cent of Russians still “definitely support” the actions of their army, only 22 per cent were “definitely” in favour of continuing military action.”Definite support” among the 18-24 age group is down at only 24 per cent.
Ukraine should be able to recapture the Dnipro’s whole north-western bank by the end of November, as Russia digs in to reinforced positions on the eastern shore. Its positions will indeed be more defensible than before, but the same is true of Ukrainian positions along the west of the river. As winter takes hold, the prospect is for a freezing of battle lines perhaps for months, although Ukrainian guns will now be able to strike at the crucial supply routes into the occupied peninsula of Crimea which have fuelled the Russian war.
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The Ukrainian return to the city will have to be slow and careful. Russian troops will certainly have left mines and booby traps and will be able to shell the battered town at will. A civilian return to what homes are still standing will be difficult.
But the events of the last few days will also prove an important boon to Kyiv’s international standing, a signal to allies of a return on their investment in arms and supplies, and evidence that this is a war that can be won. Ukraine’s army, equipped and trained by allies, is fit for purpose. With signs emerging of US Republican war-weariness, the better-than-expected Democratic performance at the midterms will help to sustain that supply chain.
To date the US has pledged some $52 billion in military, humanitarian and financial assistance since the invasion, and any weakening of resolve in Washington could send a dangerous signal to wavering European countries.
