Will the Government remain in office until early 2016? Or will the Taoiseach seek a new mandate sooner and use next week’s budget to set the scene for a general election in late November? Enda Kenny has not yet ruled out the latter option although Tánaiste and Labour leader Joan Burton remains strongly opposed to a snap election. Both leaders have handled the issue of the general election date quite ineptly.
Increasingly of late, the Taoiseach has engaged in constructive ambiguity about the date. He has fudged an issue about which – up to now – he has always been very clear. By doing so, Mr Kenny has allowed media speculation to develop around a November election, having previously insisted that his Government would run its full term to next March. Ms Burton, by making her opposition to a November poll known so publicly and by appearing to question the Taoiseach’s constitutional prerogative in calling an election – has exposed divisions within the Coalition at an inopportune time.
A general election next month, called against the background of dissension between the outgoing Coalition parties, would neither enhance Fine Gael and Labour’s appeal to voters, nor strengthen their common argument about the importance of stability of government. For voters deciding how to vote next time, government stability will be an important consideration for some. By discreetly ensuring, in effect, that party candidates and activists have been alerted to a possible snap poll, Mr Kenny may be trying to ensure Fine Gael is fully prepared for the election battle. But a decision to cut and run to the country sooner than anticipated would also leave some major issues unresolved and some questions for the Taoiseach to answer.
An early election would mean that the Finance Bill, which implements the budget measures, would be scaled back. Debate would be curtailed given the time constraints on its passage through the Oireachtas. And could a Social Welfare Bill – to implement welfare changes – be quickly passed when even a slimmed down version has not been considered? Almost certainly, the banking inquiry, which this week was given an extension by the Oireachtas to complete its report, could not hope to do so within a matter of weeks. Therefore, an inquiry long sought and much needed, which has cost a great deal, would collapse with an early dissolution of the Dáil.
Fine Gael has always, rightly, taken pride in its readiness to put country before party and to act in the national interest. Mr Kenny this week said that “stability in politics brings confidence”. His studied reticence on the election date, however, has needlessly added to political uncertainty and only served to undermine one of his main achievements in office up to now – political stability in challenging economic times.