ANALYSIS:Security sources in the South see dissident republicans as common criminals whose motivation is anything but political, writes TOM CLONAN
THE SO-CALLED Real IRA (RIRA) has been in existence since 1997. Its core membership consists of former members of the Provisional IRA (PIRA) who were opposed to some aspects of the Anglo-Irish peace process. That was then.
Twelve years later – 11 years after the botched RIRA bomb attack that killed 29 innocent civilians in Omagh in Co Tyrone – the RIRA along with the Continuity IRA (CIRA) consist of a nucleus of hardened criminals whose “republican” pretensions are in the main a front for organised crime in the Border area and in some inner city areas north and south of the Border.
While there are a small number of republican political die-hards within the RIRA and CIRA – who would claim that united Ireland on their terms is their ultimate objective – intelligence sources both north and south of the Border believe that the foot-soldiers in these organisations are being manipulated in order to further the interests of organised crime within Ireland.
Speaking to The Irish Timesyesterday, one intelligence source described some of the key players within these organisations as "former PIRA men who cannot return to their ordinary lives as unemployed plasterers and bricklayers".
Another source added: “These guys are addicted to the status that went with their roles as former PIRA active service members.
“Many senior RIRA and CIRA figures are simply gangsters who cannot give up the revenue streams that accrue to them from illegal fuel operations and other criminal activities located in Border areas and elsewhere.”
Despite the rhetoric of the RIRA and CIRA, the primary goal of these organisations is to disrupt the normalisation of policing within Northern Ireland. As part of the peace dividend in Northern Ireland, normal community policing has been slowly but steadily extending to those Border counties which were formerly no-go areas for the RUC and British army – such as parts of Armagh, Fermanagh and south Tyrone.
Hand in hand with these developments, the Police Service of Northern Ireland has only recently been properly poised to target the criminal activities of former paramilitaries who style themselves as dissident republicans.
In order to thwart the efforts of the PSNI to investigate the tax affairs, criminal assets and proceeds of crime enjoyed by disaffected republicans, intelligence sources indicate that the RIRA and CIRA have stepped up their surveillance and attacks on members of the PSNI.
Both groups have also been engaged in surveillance on members of the Garda Síochána who are involved in the investigation of organised crime.
But attacks by these organisations on British soldiers or members of the PSNI simply function to mask the baseline strategy of the RIRA and CIRA, which is to prevent the normalisation of policing in the North.
The fatal attacks in past days confirm fears within the intelligence and security community that the RIRA and CIRA are strengthening in resolve.
However, the command and control structures of the RIRA and CIRA remain fragmented and their logistical, operational and intelligence functions remain relatively underdeveloped.
In Irish intelligence circles the RIRA is referred to as “Rí Rá”, the Irish for chaotic or shambolic behaviour, such is the lack of professionalism and unified purpose within its ranks – attributes which are normally the hallmarks of genuinely politically motivated terrorist groupings. Against this background of incompetence there are fears in intelligence circles that following the two recent gun attacks, an over-confident RIRA might attempt to mount a botched car-bomb attack in coming weeks which could result in a tragedy similar to that of Omagh.
Security sources in the Republic identify strongly with their counterparts in Northern Ireland and would support symbolic gestures of solidarity, such as the President’s aide-de-camp being present for the funeral of PSNI constable Stephen Carroll.
They would also like the Defence Forces to be represented at the funerals of the British soldiers murdered in Antrim.
In addition to these symbolic measures, they believe concrete and robust policing measures must be adopted north and south of the Border.
In addition to targeting the so-called “republican” organised criminals behind recent events, organised criminal gangs south of the Border – who have murdered and shot more than 20 individuals in the past 12 months – also need to be targeted.
Tom Clonan is
The Irish Times
Security Analyst. He lectures in the School of Media, DIT