Cowen rallies backbenchers to defend tough choices to come

Fianna Fáil TDs hope unpopular decisions will right the ship in time for the next election, writes Mark Hennessy Political Correspondent…

Fianna Fáil TDs hope unpopular decisions will right the ship in time for the next election, writes Mark Hennessy Political Correspondent

IN THE late hours of Monday in Galway, after the work of the day was done, trad singer Eleanor Shanley led Fianna Fáil TDs in the chorus of Still I Love Him. TDs will have cause in coming times to hope that the public will remember kindly its sentiments: "Still I love him. I'll forgive him, wherever he goes."

Undoubtedly, the two-day meeting of the Fianna Fáil parliamentary party was designed to put steel in the spine of TDs just weeks away from the budget.

Again and again, both Taoiseach Brian Cowen and Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan reinforced the message: tough choices will have to be made, and subsequently defended.

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So far, the backbenchers are up for it, surprisingly so in fact - though that same unity will have to be maintained in the face of the onslaught that will follow the budget.

The backbenchers' calm is based on a simple premise. Tough decisions taken quickly will right the ship in time for the next general election, if not next year's local elections.

The confidence is based on the belief an upturn will come, if not quickly, then at least by 2010; but on that few of those watching the global financial turmoil closely will bet their wares.

That same financial turmoil, however, has given the Government the opportunity to recalibrate the presentation of the crisis facing the exchequer's finances.

Instead of it being just about Ireland's construction spending and the rampant growth in public spending, Minister after Minister will point to the blood-letting on Wall Street.

However, the reality of what has been done will remain, regardless of whether the US recovers quickly after cathartic amputations, or whether it lingers in illness.

Privately, few of the Cabinet will deny that next month's budget will be the toughest in 20 years or more, and certainly far tougher than the one imposed in the wake of September 11th, 2001.

Back then, changes were made and Fianna Fáil benefited in time, though not before they suffered severe losses in the 2004 local elections.

Fianna Fáil TDs are hoping that Brian Lenihan's first budget - however difficult - will at least bring certainty to the political landscape. In truth, there has been little enough of that since the new regime took over before the summer, with badly chosen words and a sense of drift the order of the day.

Since the resumption of the political season, however, Cowen and Lenihan have sought to emphasise the difficult challenges ahead, and that they will bring pain in their wake.

Indeed, both of them sense that there is an appetite from the public for resolute action - though, equally, they know that this appetite fades just as quickly when an unpalatable diet is presented.

Yet, they also have to inspire hope that the situation is not terminal: that it can be turned around; and that a new, better dawn is achievable.

Not all of their political messaging, however, has brought clarity, with confusing signals emerging about what the Government wants to happen with construction.

Despite pressure from the building industry, banks and others, the Government has insisted that it will not intervene and that houses will have to drop in price. Yet, you have Tánaiste Mary Coughlan saying that Lenihan is talking to the construction industry about actions, before retracting such a statement after Lenihan disagrees. Then, however, we hear the suggestion, as will be aired at today's Cabinet meeting, of letting the Housing Finance Agency offer extra cash for mortgages to low-earners. Such a move is not an artificial inflation of the housing market, says Cowen. And it will not have much effect, says Lenihan.

But if both statements are true, why do it? House-buyers, in reality, do not need more freely available State-backed mortgages. They need lower prices from builders for the houses already built that stand unoccupied.

Elsewhere, the Government simply must get a significant pay pause from public sector workers next year if it is to have any hope of ensuring that services are not butchered beyond belief.

Speaking following a presentation by two top doctors, Cowen said those leading health service reforms are not looking for extra cash, but support.

Back in 2004, Fianna Fáil lost 80 seats on local councils, which put the wind up Oireachtas members as they worried about their own political futures.

Those losses mean that Cowen cannot afford to suffer any more next year. For now, though, he hopes rigid control from FF headquarters will maximise the value of each vote won next June.

Difficult times are not without some pluses in the world of politics, judging by the Government's reworked message on the Lisbon Treaty referendum. Repeatedly, Cowen, Lenihan and Minister for Foreign Affairs Michéal Martin pointed to the danger that a No vote will create uncertainty abroad about our intentions. Faced next year with difficult times at home, the Government clearly believes that a more cautious public will not want to be taking chances on the wider stage. Perhaps so, but perhaps not. Either way, the Government is clearly in no mood to outline its next actions on Lisbon for the longest, longest time.

Despite all of the woes abroad and at home, Fianna Fáil at least no longer has to obsess about, or defend, the financial tribulations of former taoiseach Bertie Ahern.

And the internal contentment, in so far as that ever goes in the world of politics, was obvious during Monday night's dinner, a more relaxed affair than many of the recent past.

Called on to sing on Monday night, Cowen delivered The Mountains of Mourne in a melodious, gentle style - one far removed from his more combative public image.

In coming months, Cowen will have to show both sides of his character, both gentle and hard, to persuade and convince the public, and, most of all, to defend his actions.