The latest round of tortuous UN negotiations aimed at reaching a new global agreement on how to confront climate change ended in Bangkok on Friday last with all sides at least a little clearer on where each of them stood. We know, for example, that the United States will not sign up to a deal at the Copenhagen climate conference in December that would specify target reductions in greenhouse gas emissions for all developed countries and impose a Kyoto Protocol-style compliance regime, with penalties for failing to achieve such targets by 2020. We also know that the European Union is now prepared to negotiate a new treaty, retaining as many of the elements of Kyoto as possible, if this would ensure US participation and engage major developing countries such as China and India.
But it is clear too, that developing countries, large and small, still firmly believe that, since the richer nations of the world share a historical responsibility for the build-up of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, they are therefore morally obliged to make the deepest cuts. The developing countries are also seeking substantial additional aid, estimated by the World Bank at $100 billion (€68 billion) per year, to help them adapt to the impacts of climate change and fund the clean technology needed to put their legitimate aspirations for economic growth and prosperity on a more environmntally sustainable path. Agreement on these crunch issues will only be reached – if, indeed, it can be – when politcal leaders come to make the hard choices in Copenhagen.
By coincidence, President Barack Obama will be in Oslo on December 10th to receive his Nobel Peace Prize, and there have been calls for him to travel from there to the Danish capital and show courageous leadership at the climate conference, which will have started three days earlier. Whether his physical presence would help to seal the deal is an open question; the real issue for him is that whatever agreement may be reached is politically saleable at home, as it would require approval by the US Senate. That means it must be global in scope, including China and other major economies in the developing world.
Negotiators representing 180 UN member states now have a three-week break before a final round of preparatory talks in Barcelona during the first week of November. They would be wise to use this time to obtain more explicit instructions from their political leaders on the main issues remaining to be resolved if there is to be any deal in December.