President Chirac's announcement last night that France is to have early parliamentary elections brings the European issue to the centre of political affairs in another large EU member state. It has become the centre of gravity in the closing stages of the British election campaign and also dominates the German political agenda during the long run in to next year's elections there. The future of the European Union, most notably the ambitious plans for a single currency, will be formulated in the working out of these electoral decisions.
Mr Chirac's decision is characteristically daring and a gamble that may well pay off. Given the sacrifices he calls on French citizens to make so that France will qualify for monetary union, he has calculated that it is better to go for a renewed majority and mandate sooner rather than later, in the name of "building a Europe respectful of the genius of the nations which compose it and capable of rivalling the great world groups". Given the shift of position on the Maastricht convergence criteria by Mr Lionel Jo spin leader of the French Socialist Party, a victory by the opposition could herald a significant change of course by France not only in domestic but in European policy.
Mr Jospin says he will not respect a strict adherence to the 3 per cent criterion for public expenditure deficits because it would endanger the achievements that distinguish French society. It is a signal that he favours closer co-operation with the Communists and the Greens, who could squeeze a majority out of popular discontent and disenchantment with austerity politics. It was said of the British Labour Party's left wing manifesto in the 1983 general election campaign that it was the longest suicide note in history. Are not Mr Chirac and his Prime Minister, Mr Alain Juppe facing the same fate from a different perspective, labelled, as Mr Jospin puts it, with the burdens of "hard capitalism and ultra liberalism" on the model of the Anglo Saxon economies which Mr Chirac has previously so calumniated?
His appeal to French voters to provide fresh domestic and European mandates is open, therefore, to critiques with which he was previously associated. These ambiguities have been present in his platform since the presidential campaign two years ago in which he defeated Mr Jospin with a promise to heal France's social fractures. This time around, he has little option but to justify new expenditure cuts by reference to the greater good of France's position and security in the wider Europe, based on a slimmer welfare state and lower taxation plans proposed by Mr Juppe. He will be hoping to hold on to his parliamentary majority and avoid a five year period of cohabitation with the opposition for the remaining period of his presidency.
These elections will add uncertainty to negotiations on monetary union and reform of the EU's institutions set to conclude at Amsterdam by mid June. Together with the greater uncertainty of Britain's European policy coming out of this campaign, irrespective of who wins it, and the emergence of a more questioning European policy in Germany, it is clear that we are in for a rocky period in coming months. But it is the function of political leadership to clarify such issues and of elections to make such choices. With this announcement Mr Chirac is making full use of the tactical advantage he has to decide on their timing and substance.