BRIAN COWEN’S first 100 days as Taoiseach has coincided with two intense administrative and economic challenges that have shaken his selfconfidence and threatened the authority of Government. A further horrendous period like that and the public will begin to look around for a successor. It may not be fair, but the window of opportunity in which Mr Cowen can display his considerable political talents is closing rapidly.
Political leaders, no more than Napoleon’s generals, require a helping hand from Lady Luck. And while Bertie Ahern appeared to enjoy a special relationship with the lady in question, his successor has struggled to make her acquaintance. Now, having lost the Lisbon referendum and the benign regard of our EU neighbours; presided over a dramatic slowdown in the economy and failed to secure a new national wage agreement, Mr Cowen could do with her kind attentions.
Time is not on his side. As unemployment rises rapidly and Government finances stagnate, he has sought meetings with employers and trade unions at the end of this month to review prospects for a wage deal. It was all that could be salvaged from failed negotiations involving the social partners. And it may be beneficial. Neither unions nor management relish a return to free collective bargaining and the prospect of industrial unrest. As each passing week charts a looming recession, the expectations of workers diminish and holding on to one’s job in the private sector has become the new imperative. Finding a balance between the sides that will protect the interests of workers while acknowledging the need for increased competitiveness is the challenge.
Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan has spoken of the need for pay restraint and of managers and business owners sharing the pain of economic repositioning with their employees. In the same vein, Tánaiste and Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment Mary Coughlan is confident agreement can be reached, provided there is goodwill on all sides. But it will require a more explicit and detailed intervention to shock the social partners into co-operation. Perhaps that will be forthcoming in a “state of the nation” address Mr Cowen is expected to deliver in September when he will spell out the true extent of the economic downturn and its implications for Government spending.
If he surmounts that hurdle, the Taoiseach will be confronted by the more difficult task of responding creatively to the failed Lisbon referendum. EU heads of government will expect a detailed analysis of the situation by October and a formula for making progress by December. It seems an impossibly tight schedule. And Mr Cowen would be wise to proceed cautiously.
The Fianna Fáil leader is in a thankless position. By putting the economy first and taking harsh budgetary decisions, there is a risk that the party may lose out in next year’s local elections. However, resolute leadership is required and he must gamble that the electorate will reward him for it. His reaction to the Lisbon challenge will dictate how Ireland’s concerns are viewed in Brussels. He will need to be imaginative and lucky.