Canada's Election

Mr Jean Chretien has pulled off a political coup by winning the Canadian general elections with a stronger majority than before…

Mr Jean Chretien has pulled off a political coup by winning the Canadian general elections with a stronger majority than before. He had been criticised within and without his Liberal Party, on both tactical and policy grounds, for calling the election early.

But he has the last laugh, having soundly defeated the radical right-wing Canadian Alliance, which completely failed to penetrate Liberal strongholds in Ontario and Quebec, putting himself in a strong position to stay in power for another full term.

Mr Chretien deserves his reputation as a canny leader, a shrewd judge of the Canadian political atmosphere. On this occasion, he took full advantage of the disarray among the country's right-wing parties. The Alliance movement, led by a right-wing evangelist, Mr Stockwell Day, had not yet properly established itself, although it has crippled the other Progressive Conservatives led by Mr Joe Clark.

Its policies on race relations, low taxation, privatised health systems, and on referendums dealing with abortion and the death penalty, went beyond what many Canadians are prepared to accept. Nonetheless, it has displaced the Conservatives in the western part of Canada. As a result the country looks polarised between east and west as never before.

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To some extent, that polarisation is balanced by Mr Chretien's success in outperforming the separatist Bloc Quebecois in Quebec province, where the conservative vote collapsed. They both secured 37 seats in the federal parliament, a reduction of four for the separatists. Mr Chretien, who is from the province, has scathingly opposed separatism. Last year, he pushed through a bill making it much harder to secede on legal grounds and then dared voters to respond. As a result, Canada's political integrity looks more secure, since it is considered less likely, after this result, that another referendum will be called soon on whether Quebec should become independent. But by the same token, the east-west polarisation makes it much more difficult to find a compromise that would recognise Quebec's national distinctiveness within the Canadian federation.

Canada's economy has strengthened under Mr Chretien's stewardship and that of his capable finance minister, Mr Paul Martin. The budget is in surplus, federal debts have been reduced, unemployment has reduced and growth this year is running at five per cent. This favourable performance provided an extra reason to vote for the Liberals. The forthcoming economic agenda is likely to include tax cuts and measures to improve Canadian productivity.

Canada is a significant investor in Ireland, so that the health of its economy must be taken seriously here. Canadians are fortunate to have had such a clear-cut result, compared to the long drawn out saga in the United States. It will be intriguing to watch how Mr Chretien deals with this boost to his political career, having won three elections in a row. Hints before the election that he might retire are not expected to resurface; but he is in a position to arrange a leadership change whenever he decides to go.